TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130828
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Liska
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114119116––––
Martin Kocvara
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Liska to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 52 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Liska at 62.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 1–3 Martin Kocvara Tomas Liska has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:51What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Liska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Kocvara
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1658 vs Kocvara 1669
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 20% vs Kocvara 40%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 30% vs Kocvara 50%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska -3 · Kocvara +1
Liska
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Liska) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 1.73 / Kocvara 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Liska)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13130828
Liska1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite48% won 39 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 28 of 42
Kocvara2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog55% won 47 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back47% 21 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back24% 5 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLiska1wins
AwayKocvara3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderKocvara leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiskan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKocvara66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska1Kocvara3n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
S2Liska1Kocvara3n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
S3Liska4Kocvara0n = 4Liska took 4 of 4
S4Liska0Kocvara4n = 4Kocvara took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLiskaKocvaraL − KBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match38.043.2−5.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime400 / 867 vs 83 / 14646.1%56.9%400 / 867 vs 83 / 146Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LiskaLiska 1.73/Kocvara 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Liska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 12 · 08:18T. Liska311241141M. Kocvara4014114113
LAug 12 · 07:15T. Liska50117161062M. Kocvara535111412113
WJul 12 · 19:15T. Liska46911114113M. Kocvara4011281182
LJun 28 · 05:30T. Liska25661121M. Kocvara4011117113
T. Liska10
LSep 15 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.5771111113T. Liska2.25115861LSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890LSep 14 · 08:23T. Liska2.107990L. Rulc1.671111113WSep 14 · 07:15L. Rulc1.7311510111T. Liska2.0071112133LSep 14 · 06:45T. Liska2.009680M. Vyskocil1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:45T. Liska2.38871151L. Dobias1.5311119113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska2.251611113M. Makara1.5714890LSep 13 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.7311119113T. Liska2.00591121WSep 13 · 09:45O. Mezera3.0071181282T. Liska1.361171110113LSep 8 · 12:58L. Veigl1.911111113T. Liska1.807690
M. Kocvara10
WSep 15 · 10:45J. Dolezal2.10771181M. Kocvara1.6711118113LSep 15 · 09:15M. Vyskocil1.911112113M. Kocvara1.8081090LSep 13 · 20:14M. Kocvara1.73511911102M. Vyskocil2.00114115123WSep 13 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.8311101161M. Kocvara1.8311213113LSep 13 · 18:45M. Kocvara1.8310490R. Pisa1.831211113LSep 13 · 17:45M. Kocvara2.634530J. Sr1.441111113WSep 10 · 09:03R. Pisa1.8311713101M. Kocvara1.8341115123WSep 10 · 07:30M. Kocvara1.611111113J. Senk2.209260WSep 10 · 06:30M. Kocvara1.80111110113L. Veigl1.91881291LSep 10 · 05:30M. Kocvara1.8311891192R. Pisa1.83811119113
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