TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131183
Played Sep 15Finished
Josef Dolezal
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711711118811––
Martin Kocvara
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Dolezal above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 56.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Josef Dolezal 0–1 Martin Kocvara Josef Dolezal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kocvara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1620 vs Kocvara 1659
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 40% vs Kocvara 20%
Dolezal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 40% vs Kocvara 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +2 · Kocvara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kocvara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.10 / Kocvara 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kocvara)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13131183
Dolezal2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 35 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Kocvara1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDolezal0wins
AwayKocvara1wins
Kocvara leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDolezalKocvaraD − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.039.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 127 vs 82 / 14545.7%56.6%58 / 127 vs 82 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraDolezal 2.10/Kocvara 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 18 · 11:15J. Dolezal34811961M. Kocvara3911611113
J. Dolezal10
WSep 15 · 11:15M. Vyskocil1.831181011122J. Dolezal1.83711127143WSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890WSep 2 · 20:20J. Dolezal2.101111011113S. Rejent1.6741112732LSep 2 · 19:45R. Pisa1.7311118113J. Dolezal2.00381181LSep 2 · 18:45S. Rejent1.67111114123J. Dolezal2.1013212101LSep 2 · 17:15M. Ullman1.73711511113J. Dolezal2.0011611682WSep 2 · 12:44J. Dolezal1.831111910113M. Vyskocil1.8384111282WSep 2 · 11:45J. Dolezal1.5311511133A. Radkovsky2.388116111LSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:45M. Vyskocil1.9111115113J. Dolezal1.80781181
M. Kocvara10
LSep 15 · 11:45T. Liska1.731111113M. Kocvara2.004960LSep 15 · 09:15M. Vyskocil1.911112113M. Kocvara1.8081090LSep 13 · 20:14M. Kocvara1.73511911102M. Vyskocil2.00114115123WSep 13 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.8311101161M. Kocvara1.8311213113LSep 13 · 18:45M. Kocvara1.8310490R. Pisa1.831211113LSep 13 · 17:45M. Kocvara2.634530J. Sr1.441111113WSep 10 · 09:03R. Pisa1.8311713101M. Kocvara1.8341115123WSep 10 · 07:30M. Kocvara1.611111113J. Senk2.209260WSep 10 · 06:30M. Kocvara1.80111110113L. Veigl1.91881291LSep 10 · 05:30M. Kocvara1.8311891192R. Pisa1.83811119113
Upcoming Matches
J. Dolezal
M. Kocvara
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