TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142686
Played Sep 17Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114121010121012117
Michal Makara
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 62.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 7–3 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1691 vs Makara 1678
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Makara 80%
Makara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Makara 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Makara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.53 / Makara 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Svoboda)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13142686
Svoboda1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 23 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it73% 16 of 22
Makara2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 157 of 342
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayMakara3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda71.4%5 of 7
AwayMakara33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda7Makara3n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S2Svoboda6Makara4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S4Svoboda3Makara4n = 7Makara took 4 of 7
S5Svoboda4Makara1n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaMakaraS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.4+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 170 vs 500 / 104645.3%47.8%77 / 170 vs 500 / 1046Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.53/Makara 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda28116561M. Makara4181111113
WJul 6 · 14:45L. Svoboda331111113M. Makara169610
WJun 22 · 08:18L. Svoboda46512117113M. Makara43111061152
WJun 22 · 05:15L. Svoboda50681411113M. Makara45111112832
WJun 21 · 10:15L. Svoboda331111113M. Makara228590
LFeb 19 · 08:15L. Svoboda239860M. Makara331111113
WSep 1 · 06:45L. Svoboda5612111210113M. Makara49105141282
LAug 24 · 20:45L. Svoboda45116711102M. Makara47711116123
WAug 24 · 19:45L. Svoboda46121112113M. Makara321041441
WJan 20 · 06:15L. Svoboda50111378113M. Makara46511111182
L. Svoboda10
LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113LSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113LSep 13 · 07:45D. Gasparovic1.8013911113L. Svoboda1.911111821WSep 13 · 06:45J. Chalupa1.531131261L. Svoboda2.3891114113WSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113WSep 12 · 12:46M. Makara1.8312940L. Svoboda1.831411113LSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda1.50116561M. Makara2.5081111113WSep 12 · 10:15A. Snr1.838960L. Svoboda1.831111113WSep 12 · 09:45V. Burylov1.9110590L. Svoboda1.801211103LSep 11 · 08:13L. Dobias1.6111117133L. Svoboda2.207911111
M. Makara10
LSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173WSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113WSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:15M. Stibor1.36811111172M. Makara3.00116135113WSep 14 · 16:43M. Makara1.911111117113R. Pisa1.8081361172LSep 14 · 15:45R. Pisa1.7313712113M. Makara2.0011111081LSep 14 · 14:45S. Rejent1.67131158113M. Makara2.10116111182WSep 14 · 13:15O. Mezera2.2069111582M. Makara1.611111813113LSep 12 · 12:46M. Makara1.8312940L. Svoboda1.831411113WSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda1.50116561M. Makara2.5081111113
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