TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142709
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Liska
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117101211910121012
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Liska above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 104 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 56.6%
104 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Liska 13–16 Ondrej Kaderabek Tomas Liska has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kaderabek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Kaderabek
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Liska 1660 vs Kaderabek 1650
Liska
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Liska 20% vs Kaderabek 40%
Kaderabek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Liska 30% vs Kaderabek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Liska -1 · Kaderabek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLiska 2.10 / Kaderabek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kaderabek)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13142709
Liska2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 80 of 205
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Kaderabek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLiska2wins
AwayKaderabek8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKaderabek leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLiska40%2 of 5
AwayKaderabek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Liska5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S2Liska5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S3Liska4Kaderabek6n = 10Kaderabek took 6 of 10
S4Liska3Kaderabek4n = 7Kaderabek took 4 of 7
S5Liska1Kaderabek6n = 7Kaderabek took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLiskaKaderabekL − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.043.1−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLiskaKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime401 / 869 vs 200 / 39046.1%51.3%401 / 869 vs 200 / 390Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekLiska 2.10/Kaderabek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 15 · 05:15T. Liska4111781142O. Kaderabek42411115113
LJun 6 · 11:15T. Liska49811111092O. Kaderabek46113912113
WJun 3 · 08:48T. Liska341111123O. Kaderabek2129100
LJun 3 · 06:15T. Liska4791171372O. Kaderabek531191111113
LMay 9 · 09:03T. Liska2711970O. Kaderabek351311113
LMay 9 · 06:00T. Liska195860O. Kaderabek331111113
WApr 14 · 10:45T. Liska53171159113O. Kaderabek49154111182
LApr 13 · 15:00T. Liska52118131192O. Kaderabek526111113113
LApr 7 · 06:15T. Liska4448111382O. Kaderabek521111811113
LMar 26 · 09:00T. Liska4411117962O. Kaderabek48961111113
T. Liska10
WSep 17 · 10:45T. Liska2.2511117113M. Makara1.57791131LSep 15 · 12:44M. Kocvara2.5071211113T. Liska1.501110341WSep 15 · 11:45T. Liska1.731111113M. Kocvara2.004960LSep 15 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.5771111113T. Liska2.25115861LSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890LSep 14 · 08:23T. Liska2.107990L. Rulc1.671111113WSep 14 · 07:15L. Rulc1.7311510111T. Liska2.0071112133LSep 14 · 06:45T. Liska2.009680M. Vyskocil1.731111113LSep 14 · 05:45T. Liska2.38871151L. Dobias1.5311119113WSep 13 · 11:45T. Liska2.251611113M. Makara1.5714890
O. Kaderabek10
WSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282LSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:45O. Kaderabek2.101211910113L. Veigl1.67108111282LSep 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2.75111113592P. Wasik1.40691511113LSep 15 · 07:45P. Wasik1.4011119113O. Kaderabek2.75981191WSep 15 · 06:45L. Dobias1.8013391172O. Kaderabek1.911111115113WSep 15 · 05:15L. Adam2.0011891192O. Kaderabek1.73411115113LSep 13 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.36111111123O. Kaderabek3.009135101
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