TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148456
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119113411511116
Tomas Liska
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 82 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 57.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 22–14 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-14 in 36
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1717 vs Liska 1641
Svoboda
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 60% vs Liska 20%
Svoboda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 60% vs Liska 30%
Svoboda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Liska -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.67 / Liska 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Svoboda)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13148456
Svoboda1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 25 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Liska2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 81 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back19% 23 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda5wins
AwayLiska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda75%3 of 4
AwayLiska66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda4Liska6n = 10Liska took 6 of 10
S4Svoboda4Liska2n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaLiskaS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.636.9−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 167 vs 402 / 87345.5%46.1%76 / 167 vs 402 / 873Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.67/Liska 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda45611611113T. Liska4411811592
LAug 5 · 07:45L. Svoboda2351080T. Liska341112113
LAug 4 · 07:45L. Svoboda33671191T. Liska3711114113
WSep 3 · 08:00L. Svoboda331111113T. Liska237880
WAug 25 · 08:00L. Svoboda4271311113T. Liska381111791
LAug 24 · 18:45L. Svoboda2138100T. Liska341111123
LAug 14 · 09:15L. Svoboda195770T. Liska331111113
LJul 23 · 15:45L. Svoboda4311911572T. Liska47711711113
WJul 19 · 18:45L. Svoboda4316114123T. Liska4214711101
L. Svoboda10
LSep 18 · 10:30L. Svoboda1.6141113762V. Burylov2.201141111113WSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.67611611113T. Liska2.1011811592LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113LSep 13 · 07:45D. Gasparovic1.8013911113L. Svoboda1.911111821WSep 13 · 06:45J. Chalupa1.531131261L. Svoboda2.3891114113WSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113WSep 12 · 12:46M. Makara1.8312940L. Svoboda1.831411113
T. Liska10
WSep 18 · 11:00L. Dobias1.5085111152T. Liska2.50111197113LSep 17 · 12:18M. Makara1.67117117113T. Liska2.1041181192LSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.67611611113T. Liska2.1011811592WSep 17 · 10:45T. Liska2.2511117113M. Makara1.57791131LSep 17 · 09:45T. Liska2.1011101110102O. Kaderabek1.67712912123LSep 15 · 12:44M. Kocvara2.5071211113T. Liska1.501110341WSep 15 · 11:45T. Liska1.731111113M. Kocvara2.004960LSep 15 · 10:15M. Vyskocil1.5771111113T. Liska2.25115861LSep 15 · 09:45J. Dolezal2.001111113T. Liska1.737890LSep 14 · 08:23T. Liska2.107990L. Rulc1.671111113
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