TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148416
Played Sep 18Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111141311711611
Volodymyr Burylov
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 58.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 2–2 Volodymyr Burylov Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:46What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1726 vs Burylov 1637
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 80% vs Burylov 0%
Svoboda
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 70% vs Burylov 40%
Svoboda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +3 · Burylov -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.61 / Burylov 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13148416
Svoboda1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 25 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it74% 17 of 23
Burylov2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 40 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back40% 15 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back29% 5 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayBurylov2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda2Burylov2n = 4split evenly
S2Svoboda3Burylov1n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
S3Svoboda1Burylov2n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSvobodaBurylovS − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match32.035.3−3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 167 vs 199 / 40046.1%49.8%77 / 167 vs 199 / 400Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.61/Burylov 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 15 · 20:13L. Svoboda196850V. Burylov331111113
WJul 15 · 18:45L. Svoboda331111113V. Burylov228590
LAug 26 · 15:45L. Svoboda44101171152V. Burylov51129118113
L. Svoboda10
WSep 18 · 11:30L. Svoboda2.2013114143L. Dobias1.6111911121WSep 18 · 09:30L. Svoboda1.67111145113T. Liska2.1093111162WSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.67611611113T. Liska2.1011811592LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113LSep 13 · 07:45D. Gasparovic1.8013911113L. Svoboda1.911111821WSep 13 · 06:45J. Chalupa1.531131261L. Svoboda2.3891114113WSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113
V. Burylov10
LSep 18 · 10:00L. Dobias1.801112143V. Burylov1.91810120LSep 12 · 12:17V. Burylov1.80116951A. Snr1.9181111113LSep 12 · 11:15A. Snr2.1091113113V. Burylov1.671171191LSep 12 · 10:45V. Burylov1.80111071182M. Makara1.91612119113LSep 12 · 09:45V. Burylov1.9110590L. Svoboda1.801211103WSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133LSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132WSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891
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