TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13146453
Played Sep 17Finished
Ondrej Kaderabek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118711116811511
Lukas Svoboda
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11
89 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 3–1 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kaderabek beat Svoboda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.61 / Svoboda 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kaderabek)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13146453
Kaderabek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 34 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Svoboda2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 18 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKaderabek3wins
AwaySvoboda1wins
Kaderabek leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek2Svoboda2n = 4split evenly
S2Kaderabek3Svoboda1n = 4Kaderabek took 3 of 4
S3Kaderabek1Svoboda3n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
S4Kaderabek3Svoboda0n = 3Kaderabek took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKaderabekSvobodaK − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match35.035.5−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 393 vs 75 / 16651.7%45.2%203 / 393 vs 75 / 166Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekKaderabek 1.61/Svoboda 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 10:15O. Kaderabek4012116113L. Svoboda361071181
LSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1851120L. Svoboda351113113
WJun 21 · 11:45O. Kaderabek4181111113L. Svoboda34117791
WJun 14 · 08:00O. Kaderabek4111117123L. Svoboda378811101
O. Kaderabek10
WSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172WSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:45T. Liska2.1011101110102O. Kaderabek1.67712912123WSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282LSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:45O. Kaderabek2.101211910113L. Veigl1.67108111282LSep 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2.75111113592P. Wasik1.40691511113LSep 15 · 07:45P. Wasik1.4011119113O. Kaderabek2.75981191WSep 15 · 06:45L. Dobias1.8013391172O. Kaderabek1.911111115113
L. Svoboda10
WSep 17 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.67611611113T. Liska2.1011811592LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:15L. Svoboda1.5311121010113M. Makara2.38410121272LSep 13 · 08:54L. Svoboda2.7511850D. Gasparovic1.401311113LSep 13 · 07:45D. Gasparovic1.8013911113L. Svoboda1.911111821WSep 13 · 06:45J. Chalupa1.531131261L. Svoboda2.3891114113WSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113WSep 12 · 12:46M. Makara1.8312940L. Svoboda1.831411113LSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda1.50116561M. Makara2.5081111113WSep 12 · 10:15A. Snr1.838960L. Svoboda1.831111113
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