TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Makara
Home
2.02
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611117113117––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 67 set 4, 11-7
67 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 30–32 Ondrej Kaderabek Michal Makara has won 30 of their 62 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kaderabek beat Makara 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (40%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.02 / Kaderabek 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kaderabek)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13164244
Makara2.02
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 154 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 85
Kaderabek1.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 37 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it68% 19 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara5wins
AwayKaderabek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara40%2 of 5
AwayKaderabek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S2Makara5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S3Makara6Kaderabek4n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S4Makara3Kaderabek6n = 9Kaderabek took 6 of 9
S5Makara3Kaderabek2n = 5Makara took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraKaderabekM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.60.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 1053 vs 199 / 38747.6%51.4%501 / 1053 vs 199 / 387Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekMakara 2.02/Kaderabek 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 10:45M. Makara371188101O. Kaderabek3951111123
LSep 17 · 11:45M. Makara4411691172O. Kaderabek47611118113
WSep 16 · 06:45M. Makara52911138113O. Kaderabek45115111172
WAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara42121153113O. Kaderabek40102111162
WAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara331111113O. Kaderabek193790
LJun 21 · 12:19M. Makara4112611392O. Kaderabek501011711113
WJun 21 · 09:15M. Makara538101311113O. Kaderabek44111211372
LJun 15 · 08:48M. Makara34712781O. Kaderabek43111011113
WJun 15 · 07:45M. Makara4391111123O. Kaderabek371188101
LJun 13 · 12:00M. Makara27541171O. Kaderabek4211119113
M. Makara10
LSep 20 · 11:45R. Pisa1.671111113M. Makara2.106990LSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911WSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180LSep 19 · 19:45L. Veigl2.20811117123M. Makara1.61118211102WSep 19 · 18:45V. Burylov1.83118114102M. Makara1.83411711123LSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710WSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101LSep 18 · 07:45M. Makara2.2071113992M. Kocvara1.611191111113WSep 18 · 06:15P. Fencl2.25111011972M. Makara1.57812711113
O. Kaderabek10
LSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113LSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172WSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:45T. Liska2.1011101110102O. Kaderabek1.67712912123WSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282LSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113
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