TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13155008
Played Sep 19Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111181127111210
Michal Makara
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 91 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Veigl at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 31–28 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 28 of their 59 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Makara
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-28 in 59
Veigl
Correct
gap of 3 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1774 vs Makara 1699
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 60% vs Makara 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 60% vs Makara 40%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +2 · Makara +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Makara) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veigl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 2.20 / Makara 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Makara)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13155008
Veigl2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 38 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Makara1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl7wins
AwayMakara3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl100%4 of 4
AwayMakara50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S2Veigl7Makara3n = 10Veigl took 7 of 10
S3Veigl5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Veigl4Makara2n = 6Veigl took 4 of 6
S5Veigl3Makara1n = 4Veigl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglMakaraV − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.637.3+2.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime278 / 531 vs 500 / 104852.4%47.7%278 / 531 vs 500 / 1048Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglVeigl 2.20/Makara 1.61
Hit
What we said
54%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 08:44L. Veigl581311710173M. Makara561171112152
LSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1911710M. Makara351311113
WSep 8 · 11:00L. Veigl44111111113M. Makara39138991
WJul 30 · 08:49L. Veigl49111188113M. Makara4279111142
LJul 30 · 05:15L. Veigl496111111102M. Makara52111388123
WJul 29 · 07:00L. Veigl44101111123M. Makara351294101
WJun 14 · 16:34L. Veigl331111113M. Makara217860
WJun 14 · 14:30L. Veigl49712811113M. Makara41111011632
LMay 10 · 17:45L. Veigl187650M. Makara331111113
WMay 10 · 12:50L. Veigl331111113M. Makara197570
L. Veigl10
WSep 19 · 18:15L. Svoboda1.6781180L. Veigl2.101113113WSep 19 · 17:45V. Burylov1.6711126682L. Veigl2.107101111113LSep 17 · 08:48L. Veigl2.10109111142L. Dobias1.67121175113LSep 17 · 07:45L. Dobias1.6711411173L. Veigl2.106114151WSep 17 · 06:45M. Bouska1.7312119662L. Veigl2.001071111113WSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143WSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173LSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113WSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113LSep 16 · 05:45O. Kaderabek2.101211910113L. Veigl1.67108111282
M. Makara10
WSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180WSep 19 · 18:45V. Burylov1.83118114102M. Makara1.83411711123LSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710WSep 18 · 08:29M. Makara1.9111711123R. Pisa1.808118101LSep 18 · 07:45M. Makara2.2071113992M. Kocvara1.611191111113WSep 18 · 06:15P. Fencl2.25111011972M. Makara1.57812711113LSep 18 · 05:45R. Pisa1.731111516113M. Makara2.00613111462WSep 17 · 12:18M. Makara1.67117117113T. Liska2.1041181192LSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173WSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113
Upcoming Matches
L. Veigl
Nothing scheduled
M. Makara
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