TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611115119––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:45 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 59.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 6–2 Ondrej Kaderabek Ondrej Kaderabek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1775 vs Kaderabek 1700
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 60% vs Kaderabek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 60% vs Kaderabek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +2 · Kaderabek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Zelinka) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.61 / Kaderabek 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Zelinka)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13161077
Zelinka1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 63 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 42 of 54
Kaderabek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 40 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZelinka6wins
AwayKaderabek2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderZelinka leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka100%4 of 4
AwayKaderabek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka4Kaderabek4n = 8split evenly
S2Zelinka3Kaderabek5n = 8Kaderabek took 5 of 8
S3Zelinka6Kaderabek2n = 8Zelinka took 6 of 8
S4Zelinka6Kaderabek0n = 6Zelinka took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricZelinkaKaderabekZ − KBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.838.6+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 389 vs 199 / 38653%51.6%206 / 389 vs 199 / 386Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.61/Kaderabek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 14 · 06:30M. Zelinka225890O. Kaderabek331111113
WJun 13 · 13:04M. Zelinka4481411113O. Kaderabek411112991
WJun 13 · 10:30M. Zelinka4211119113O. Kaderabek32781161
WMay 14 · 05:45M. Zelinka60871915113O. Kaderabek581111171362
WMay 13 · 16:54M. Zelinka331111113O. Kaderabek247980
WMay 13 · 14:15M. Zelinka4211911113O. Kaderabek27111961
LMay 9 · 06:30M. Zelinka536101115112O. Kaderabek561112713133
WApr 21 · 10:15M. Zelinka3811211143O. Kaderabek388117121
M. Zelinka10
WSep 21 · 12:21M. Zelinka1.331111113M. Stibor3.256860WSep 21 · 11:45R. Pisa2.1051160M. Zelinka1.671113113LSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662LSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980WSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911LSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113WSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:45J. Sr1.8311126113M. Zelinka1.837101151
O. Kaderabek10
WSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113LSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141WSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.73711281V. Burylov2.0011611113LSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371WSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113LSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172WSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113
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