TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311711116711511
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 93 set 5, 5-11
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 2–4 Ondrej Kaderabek Lukas Svoboda has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kaderabek beat Svoboda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.25 / Kaderabek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kaderabek)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13168407
Svoboda2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Kaderabek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayKaderabek4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKaderabek leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvobodan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKaderabek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda2Kaderabek4n = 6Kaderabek took 4 of 6
S2Svoboda2Kaderabek4n = 6Kaderabek took 4 of 6
S3Svoboda4Kaderabek2n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
S4Svoboda1Kaderabek4n = 5Kaderabek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away467%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvobodaKaderabekS − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.037.3−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 173 vs 200 / 39146.8%51.2%81 / 173 vs 200 / 391Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekSvoboda 2.25/Kaderabek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 21 · 06:45L. Svoboda33961171O. Kaderabek4211119113
WSep 17 · 12:48L. Svoboda47811611113O. Kaderabek4211711852
LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda361071181O. Kaderabek4012116113
WSep 13 · 05:15L. Svoboda351113113O. Kaderabek1851120
LJun 21 · 11:45L. Svoboda34117791O. Kaderabek4181111113
LJun 14 · 08:00L. Svoboda378811101O. Kaderabek4111117123
L. Svoboda10
WSep 21 · 07:45V. Burylov1.7378150L. Svoboda2.001111173LSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460WSep 20 · 16:23V. Burylov1.617850L. Svoboda2.201111113WSep 20 · 15:15L. Svoboda2.38712811123V. Burylov1.531110118102WSep 20 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.679111193T. Liska2.10117881WSep 20 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.73111268113L. Veigl2.00810111152LSep 20 · 08:18V. Burylov1.501112113L. Svoboda2.5061080LSep 20 · 07:15M. Bouska1.731111113L. Svoboda2.009440WSep 20 · 06:45L. Svoboda2.00116135113V. Burylov1.73911111192
O. Kaderabek10
LSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141WSep 21 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.6111119113L. Svoboda2.20961171LSep 21 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.73711281V. Burylov2.0011611113LSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113LSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172WSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113
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