TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181210611811115
Lukas Veigl
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Lukas Veigl below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 93 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 9–4 Lukas Veigl Lukas Veigl has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Svoboda
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1648 vs Veigl 1760
Veigl
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 20% vs Veigl 60%
Veigl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 30% vs Veigl 60%
Veigl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Veigl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.73 / Veigl 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svoboda)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13161844
Svoboda1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 27 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Veigl2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 40 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayVeigl3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda83.3%5 of 6
AwayVeigl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda6Veigl4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda6Veigl4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda7Veigl3n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S4Svoboda4Veigl3n = 7Svoboda took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaVeiglS − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.534.6+4.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaVeiglBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 174 vs 279 / 53346%52.4%80 / 174 vs 279 / 533Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.73/Veigl 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 18:15L. Svoboda2781180L. Veigl351113113
WJul 7 · 14:45L. Svoboda4011117113L. Veigl36791191
WFeb 18 · 21:13L. Svoboda48111266133L. Veigl507101111112
WFeb 18 · 19:45L. Svoboda4291111113L. Veigl26117351
WSep 7 · 14:15L. Svoboda4011612113L. Veigl295111031
WJul 24 · 19:45L. Svoboda331111113L. Veigl247980
WMay 30 · 07:30L. Svoboda341112113L. Veigl1951040
LMay 25 · 13:45L. Svoboda5113818482L. Veigl6011111611113
WApr 22 · 05:45L. Svoboda4381111133L. Veigl281142111
LMar 22 · 18:15L. Svoboda378111171L. Veigl3911134113
L. Svoboda10
WSep 20 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.679111193T. Liska2.10117881LSep 20 · 08:18V. Burylov1.501112113L. Svoboda2.5061080LSep 20 · 07:15M. Bouska1.731111113L. Svoboda2.009440WSep 20 · 06:45L. Svoboda2.00116135113V. Burylov1.73911111192LSep 20 · 05:45L. Svoboda1.808920M. Kocvara1.911111113LSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180LSep 19 · 19:15L. Svoboda2.007860V. Burylov1.731111113LSep 19 · 18:15L. Svoboda1.6781180L. Veigl2.101113113WSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710WSep 18 · 13:09T. Liska2.101071161L. Svoboda1.6712117113
L. Veigl10
LSep 19 · 20:48L. Veigl2.0011111271V. Burylov1.73131310113WSep 19 · 19:45L. Veigl2.20811117123M. Makara1.61118211102WSep 19 · 18:15L. Svoboda1.6781180L. Veigl2.101113113WSep 19 · 17:45V. Burylov1.6711126682L. Veigl2.107101111113LSep 17 · 08:48L. Veigl2.10109111142L. Dobias1.67121175113LSep 17 · 07:45L. Dobias1.6711411173L. Veigl2.106114151WSep 17 · 06:45M. Bouska1.7312119662L. Veigl2.001071111113WSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143WSep 16 · 08:44M. Makara2.001171112152L. Veigl1.731311710173LSep 16 · 07:45L. Veigl1.8311710M. Makara1.831311113
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