TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196111311511119
Volodymyr Burylov
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 3–4 Volodymyr Burylov Lukas Svoboda has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Burylov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1661 vs Burylov 1707
Burylov
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 20% vs Burylov 40%
Burylov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Burylov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -4 · Burylov -1
Svoboda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.00 / Burylov 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Burylov)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13161252
Svoboda2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 20 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back26% 7 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Burylov1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite40% won 36 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it60% 27 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwayBurylov4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderBurylov leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%3 of 3
AwayBurylov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda3Burylov4n = 7Burylov took 4 of 7
S2Svoboda4Burylov3n = 7Svoboda took 4 of 7
S3Svoboda3Burylov3n = 6split evenly
S4Svoboda1Burylov2n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
S5Svoboda1Burylov2n = 3Burylov took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSvobodaBurylovS − BBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match34.039.7−5.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 173 vs 206 / 41346.2%49.9%80 / 173 vs 206 / 413Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovSvoboda 2.00/Burylov 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 20 · 06:45L. Svoboda46116135113V. Burylov51911111192
LSep 19 · 19:15L. Svoboda217860V. Burylov331111113
LSep 18 · 10:30L. Svoboda4141113762V. Burylov481141111113
LJul 15 · 20:13L. Svoboda196850V. Burylov331111113
WJul 15 · 18:45L. Svoboda331111113V. Burylov228590
LAug 26 · 15:45L. Svoboda44101171152V. Burylov51129118113
L. Svoboda10
LSep 20 · 07:15M. Bouska1.731111113L. Svoboda2.009440LSep 20 · 05:45L. Svoboda1.808920M. Kocvara1.911111113LSep 19 · 20:19M. Makara2.631113113L. Svoboda1.4431180LSep 19 · 19:15L. Svoboda2.007860V. Burylov1.731111113LSep 19 · 18:15L. Svoboda1.6781180L. Veigl2.101113113WSep 19 · 17:15L. Svoboda1.53111112M. Makara2.389710WSep 18 · 13:09T. Liska2.101071161L. Svoboda1.6712117113WSep 18 · 11:30L. Svoboda2.2013114143L. Dobias1.6111911121LSep 18 · 10:30L. Svoboda1.6141113762V. Burylov2.201141111113WSep 18 · 09:30L. Svoboda1.67111145113T. Liska2.1093111162
V. Burylov10
LSep 20 · 05:15M. Bouska1.731111113V. Burylov2.008890WSep 19 · 20:48L. Veigl2.0011111271V. Burylov1.73131310113WSep 19 · 19:15L. Svoboda2.007860V. Burylov1.731111113LSep 19 · 18:45V. Burylov1.83118114102M. Makara1.83411711123LSep 19 · 17:45V. Burylov1.6711126682L. Veigl2.107101111113WSep 18 · 20:43V. Burylov1.8311115113J. Sr1.83181131WSep 18 · 19:45L. Dobias1.73511671V. Burylov2.0011611113LSep 18 · 18:45J. Sr1.91111011133V. Burylov1.807128111WSep 18 · 17:15A. Snr1.8310990V. Burylov1.831211113WSep 18 · 10:30L. Svoboda1.6141113762V. Burylov2.201141111113
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