TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ondrej Kaderabek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119116911117––
Lukas Svoboda
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:08 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 55.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 3–2 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kaderabek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1666 vs Svoboda 1697
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 20% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 50% vs Svoboda 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek -3 · Svoboda -1
Kaderabek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.61 / Svoboda 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kaderabek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13166195
Kaderabek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 38 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Svoboda2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKaderabek3wins
AwaySvoboda2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKaderabek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySvobodan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek3Svoboda2n = 5Kaderabek took 3 of 5
S2Kaderabek3Svoboda2n = 5Kaderabek took 3 of 5
S3Kaderabek2Svoboda3n = 5Svoboda took 3 of 5
S4Kaderabek3Svoboda1n = 4Kaderabek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKaderabekSvobodaK − SBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match36.437.8−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 389 vs 80 / 17351.2%46.2%199 / 389 vs 80 / 173Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekKaderabek 1.61/Svoboda 2.20
Hit
What we said
55.3%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek4211711852L. Svoboda47811611113
WSep 17 · 10:15O. Kaderabek4012116113L. Svoboda361071181
LSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1851120L. Svoboda351113113
WJun 21 · 11:45O. Kaderabek4181111113L. Svoboda34117791
WJun 14 · 08:00O. Kaderabek4111117123L. Svoboda378811101
O. Kaderabek10
LSep 21 · 07:15P. Wasik1.4411119113O. Kaderabek2.63271141LSep 21 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.73711281V. Burylov2.0011611113LSep 20 · 12:14M. Makara2.0261111113O. Kaderabek1.70117371LSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:45O. Kaderabek1.6751111123M. Makara2.101188101LSep 20 · 09:45O. Kaderabek1.91911941R. Pisa1.8011911113LSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113WSep 17 · 11:45O. Kaderabek1.61611118113M. Makara2.2011691172WSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113WSep 17 · 09:45T. Liska2.1011101110102O. Kaderabek1.67712912123
L. Svoboda10
LSep 21 · 05:15P. Wasik1.831111113L. Svoboda1.835460WSep 20 · 16:23V. Burylov1.617850L. Svoboda2.201111113WSep 20 · 15:15L. Svoboda2.38712811123V. Burylov1.531110118102WSep 20 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.679111193T. Liska2.10117881WSep 20 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.73111268113L. Veigl2.00810111152LSep 20 · 08:18V. Burylov1.501112113L. Svoboda2.5061080LSep 20 · 07:15M. Bouska1.731111113L. Svoboda2.009440WSep 20 · 06:45L. Svoboda2.00116135113V. Burylov1.73911111192WSep 17 · 12:48O. Kaderabek1.6111711852L. Svoboda2.20811611113LSep 17 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.101071181O. Kaderabek1.6712116113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.