TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Michal Stibor
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6
53 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 8–4 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stibor beat Zelinka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.33 / Stibor 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Zelinka)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13169572
Zelinka1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 65 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Stibor3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back25% 10 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka6wins
AwayStibor4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka100%4 of 4
AwayStibor66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka4Stibor6n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S2Zelinka7Stibor3n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S3Zelinka5Stibor5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelinka6Stibor2n = 8Zelinka took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaStiborZ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.0+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 390 vs 177 / 33553.1%52.8%207 / 390 vs 177 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.33/Stibor 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.1%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 09:15M. Zelinka205780M. Stibor331111113
WSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka4181111113M. Stibor30116671
LSep 9 · 09:45M. Zelinka307111111M. Stibor4311811133
WAug 25 · 05:15M. Zelinka351211123M. Stibor29109100
WAug 8 · 10:15M. Zelinka5011911193M. Stibor377112171
WJul 28 · 09:45M. Zelinka4311811133M. Stibor304114111
WMay 11 · 12:18M. Zelinka46131111113M. Stibor371191341
LMay 11 · 11:15M. Zelinka535111511112M. Stibor57118178133
WMay 6 · 10:15M. Zelinka44101211113M. Stibor341210751
LApr 29 · 11:45M. Zelinka408111291M. Stibor4011414113
M. Zelinka10
WSep 21 · 11:45R. Pisa2.1051160M. Zelinka1.671113113LSep 21 · 10:45L. Adam2.38118811113M. Zelinka1.5351111662LSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 20 · 12:43R. Pisa2.50661181M. Zelinka1.5011116113WSep 20 · 11:15M. Zelinka1.6111611113O. Kaderabek2.20711591WSep 20 · 10:15M. Zelinka1.731111113R. Pisa2.007980WSep 20 · 09:15M. Zelinka1.9131111113M. Makara1.80118911LSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113WSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:45J. Sr1.8311126113M. Zelinka1.837101151
M. Stibor10
LSep 21 · 11:15M. Stibor1.671511911102L. Adam2.10179119123LSep 21 · 10:15M. Stibor1.739580R. Pisa2.001111113WSep 21 · 09:15M. Stibor2.251111113M. Zelinka1.575780WSep 17 · 08:18M. Bouska1.53811371M. Stibor2.3811911113LSep 17 · 07:15M. Stibor1.9197110M. Bouska1.801111133LSep 17 · 06:15M. Stibor2.50811681L. Dobias1.5011711113LSep 17 · 05:15M. Stibor1.73714611122L. Veigl2.001112119143LSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282WSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:15M. Stibor1.67116101192L. Veigl2.10911129113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.