TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114119––––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeLudek Madle to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 52 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ludek Madle at 54.9%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 15–16 Jaromir Cernik Ludek Madle has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Madle
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Madle 1115 vs Cernik 1154
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 40% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 30% vs Cernik 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle -2 · Cernik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Madle) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 1.61 / Cernik 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cernik)+3.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165777
Madle1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 60 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it71% 46 of 65
Cernik2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 50 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMadle5wins
AwayCernik5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle60%3 of 5
AwayCernik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S2Madle5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Madle7Cernik3n = 10Madle took 7 of 10
S4Madle4Cernik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMadleCernikM − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.4+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 544 vs 366 / 80047.2%45.8%257 / 544 vs 366 / 800Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleMadle 1.61/Cernik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle31981131J. Cernik4111118113
WJun 2 · 08:59L. Madle4491113113J. Cernik381171191
LJun 2 · 07:00L. Madle26117531J. Cernik3741111113
WMay 18 · 07:30L. Madle44101111123J. Cernik331238101
WMay 7 · 06:00L. Madle371111153J. Cernik2575130
LMay 4 · 07:00L. Madle419911121J. Cernik4011114143
WDec 24 · 08:00L. Madle331111113J. Cernik218580
LOct 28 · 10:30L. Madle3712341172J. Cernik511011118113
LOct 28 · 08:00L. Madle389111081J. Cernik3911512113
WOct 24 · 02:30L. Madle4211911113J. Cernik29711561
L. Madle10
LSep 21 · 08:58L. Madle1.5377111172J. Cernik2.38111176113LSep 21 · 07:00L. Madle2.20911451M. Vaclavik1.6111411113LSep 21 · 06:00J. Srba2.2512139113L. Madle1.5710111171WSep 17 · 12:58L. Madle2.0012121110113Z. Kasinski1.731010131272WSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 11:30L. Madle2.3881191182M. Varcl1.53119117113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.8312911113L. Madle1.831011981LSep 16 · 02:58M. Syroha1.67111111133L. Madle2.101357111WSep 16 · 02:00D. Mutl1.579150L. Madle2.251111113LSep 16 · 24:30L. Madle2.2581111392M. Syroha1.57117711113
J. Cernik10
WSep 21 · 08:58L. Madle1.5377111172J. Cernik2.38111176113LSep 21 · 07:30J. Cernik2.00115581J. Srba1.7371111113LSep 21 · 06:30M. Vaclavik1.401111113J. Cernik2.754380WSep 20 · 13:09V. Stach1.679131091J. Cernik2.10111112113LSep 20 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.25911611113J. Cernik3.7511611672WSep 20 · 11:30J. Cernik2.5071111113M. Syroha1.50116871LSep 20 · 10:30V. Stach1.531111113J. Cernik2.385760LSep 20 · 08:58J. Cernik1.73511691J. Hyrsl2.0011411113LSep 20 · 08:00V. Stach1.5313511123J. Cernik2.3811118101WSep 20 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.83111110772J. Cernik1.83671211113
Upcoming Matches
L. Madle
Nothing scheduled
J. Cernik
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