TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146505
Played Sep 17Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210121011131012117
Zdenek Kasinski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Zdenek Kasinski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 108 set 5, 11-7
108 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 3–1 Zdenek Kasinski Zdenek Kasinski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Madle beat Kasinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasinski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 2.00 / Kasinski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kasinski)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146505
Madle2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Kasinski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite31% won 9 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it53% 9 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMadle3wins
AwayKasinski1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderMadle leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMadle75%3 of 4
AwayKasinskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Madle4Kasinski0n = 4Madle took 4 of 4
S2Madle1Kasinski3n = 4Kasinski took 3 of 4
S3Madle2Kasinski2n = 4split evenly
S4Madle2Kasinski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMadleKasinskiM − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match42.035.5+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleKasinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 546 vs 71 / 15447.4%46.1%259 / 546 vs 71 / 154Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasinskiMadle 2.00/Kasinski 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kasinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Madle won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 12:30L. Madle4111811113Z. Kasinski20111441
WJul 30 · 10:30L. Madle3911611113Z. Kasinski31611861
LAug 25 · 09:00L. Madle371188101Z. Kasinski4281111123
WAug 25 · 06:30L. Madle51121198113Z. Kasinski49109111182
L. Madle10
WSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 11:30L. Madle2.3881191182M. Varcl1.53119117113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.8312911113L. Madle1.831011981LSep 16 · 02:58M. Syroha1.67111111133L. Madle2.101357111WSep 16 · 02:00D. Mutl1.579150L. Madle2.251111113LSep 16 · 24:30L. Madle2.2581111392M. Syroha1.57117711113LSep 15 · 23:00L. Madle2.0011815892S. Mazanek1.736111311113LSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102LSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 12:30L. Madle1.73581151D. Mutl2.0011115113
Z. Kasinski10
LSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 11:00Z. Kasinski2.38119691M. Vaclavik1.5371111113WSep 17 · 10:00M. Varcl1.50511971Z. Kasinski2.5011611113LSep 13 · 13:07Z. Kasinski1.851511961V. Stach1.8517611113LSep 13 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.575880M. Vrabec2.251111113WSep 13 · 11:00Z. Kasinski2.101111113V. Stach1.679970LSep 13 · 10:00M. Syroha1.91891111123Z. Kasinski1.80111122102WSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.67114511113A. Hejduk2.1081111562WSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860
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