TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13140640
Played Sep 17Finished
Ludek Madle
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119911117811
Matej Varcl
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMatej Varcl to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Madle above · Matej Varcl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Matej Varcl at 60.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Madle 1–0 Matej Varcl Matej Varcl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Varcl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Madle 1112 vs Varcl 1285
Varcl
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Madle 20% vs Varcl 40%
Varcl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Madle 10% vs Varcl 60%
Varcl
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Madle -2 · Varcl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Varcl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varcl form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMadle 2.38 / Varcl 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Varcl)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13140640
Madle2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 40 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Varcl1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 6 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMadle1wins
AwayVarcl0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMadle leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMadleVarclM − VBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match47.041.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMadleVarclBasisWin rate · lifetime259 / 546 vs 21 / 3647.4%58.3%259 / 546 vs 21 / 36Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarclMadle 2.38/Varcl 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Varcl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Varcl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WDec 18 · 11:00L. Madle47117711113M. Varcl4171111482
L. Madle10
WSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.8312911113L. Madle1.831011981LSep 16 · 02:58M. Syroha1.67111111133L. Madle2.101357111WSep 16 · 02:00D. Mutl1.579150L. Madle2.251111113LSep 16 · 24:30L. Madle2.2581111392M. Syroha1.57117711113LSep 15 · 23:00L. Madle2.0011815892S. Mazanek1.736111311113LSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102LSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 12:30L. Madle1.73581151D. Mutl2.0011115113LSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle1.50981131J. Cernik2.5011118113
M. Varcl10
WSep 17 · 12:00M. Varcl2.00941113113M. Vaclavik1.73111151172LSep 17 · 10:00M. Varcl1.50511971Z. Kasinski2.5011611113WSep 15 · 21:07M. Varcl1.53101111113J. Martinek2.38129861LSep 15 · 20:00M. Varcl1.36119771J. Martinek3.0061111113WSep 15 · 19:30V. Stach2.001011141172M. Varcl1.731291213113LSep 15 · 18:00M. Varcl1.73614121172M. Syroha2.001112142113WApr 9 · 13:30M. Varcl1.611111113J. Grohsgott2.208720LApr 9 · 12:00M. Varcl1.361011136112J. Grohsgott3.001271111133WApr 9 · 11:30M. Lubas2.203970M. Varcl1.611111113WApr 9 · 10:00M. Varcl1.44551111113J. Svec2.6311116882
Upcoming Matches
L. Madle
Nothing scheduled
M. Varcl
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