TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Jan Srba
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101311911117––
Ludek Madle
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:12 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJan Srba to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srba above · Ludek Madle below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 84 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jan Srba at 65.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srba 1–1 Ludek Madle Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:12What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Madle
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Srba 1302 vs Madle 1115
Srba
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srba 100% vs Madle 40%
Srba
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srba 80% vs Madle 30%
Srba
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Srba +5 · Madle +2
Srba
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Madle) · live re-read · sealed at 34% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Madle form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrba 2.25 / Madle 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Madle)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13164023
Srba2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 14) · back after a break
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog67% won 8 of 12
Madle1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 17)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 60 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it71% 46 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSrba1wins
AwayMadle1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricSrbaMadleS − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.037.5−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrbaMadleBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 65 vs 257 / 54458.5%47.2%38 / 65 vs 257 / 544Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MadleSrba 2.25/Madle 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Madle · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Srba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 21 · 06:00J. Srba4512139113L. Madle3910111171
LJun 8 · 06:00J. Srba2391220L. Madle361114113
J. Srba10
WSep 14 · 09:30J. Srba1.181111113M. Vrabec4.058720WSep 14 · 08:00J. Srba2.381111113D. Mutl1.536570WSep 14 · 07:30J. Cernik1.808880J. Srba1.911111113WSep 14 · 06:00J. Srba1.2081111113M. Vrabec4.33118981WSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113LSep 10 · 08:00J. Srba2.10111310182J. Cernik1.676111211113WSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113WSep 10 · 06:00J. Srba1.50911119113A. Hejduk2.5011551192WSep 7 · 08:58J. Srba1.8361111123A. Hejduk1.831167101LSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590
L. Madle10
LSep 21 · 07:00L. Madle2.20911451M. Vaclavik1.6111411113WSep 17 · 12:58L. Madle2.0012121110113Z. Kasinski1.731010131272WSep 17 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.57111441L. Madle2.2511811113LSep 17 · 11:30L. Madle2.3881191182M. Varcl1.53119117113LSep 17 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.8312911113L. Madle1.831011981LSep 16 · 02:58M. Syroha1.67111111133L. Madle2.101357111WSep 16 · 02:00D. Mutl1.579150L. Madle2.251111113LSep 16 · 24:30L. Madle2.2581111392M. Syroha1.57117711113LSep 15 · 23:00L. Madle2.0011815892S. Mazanek1.736111311113LSep 15 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.401161011123L. Madle2.75911127102
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