TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Vojtech Stach
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13115111181210––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Stach above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vojtech Stach at 58.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Stach 2–3 Jaromir Cernik Vojtech Stach has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:11What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1256 vs Cernik 1186
Stach
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 80% vs Cernik 60%
Stach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 80% vs Cernik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach +3 · Cernik +1
Stach
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Stach) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.53 / Cernik 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Stach)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159403
Stach1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 26 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Cernik2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 49 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStach2wins
AwayCernik3wins
Cernik leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStachn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCernik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach2Cernik3n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
S2Stach2Cernik3n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
S3Stach2Cernik3n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricStachCernikS − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match27.228.4−1.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 130 vs 364 / 79252.3%46%68 / 130 vs 364 / 792Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachStach 1.53/Cernik 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 22 · 02:00V. Stach331111113J. Cernik157440
LAug 21 · 16:00V. Stach31810130J. Cernik381112153
WAug 15 · 10:30V. Stach331111113J. Cernik229670
LAug 15 · 06:00V. Stach123720J. Cernik331111113
LJun 28 · 07:30V. Stach2781090J. Cernik341112113
V. Stach10
WSep 20 · 07:30J. Martinek3.50911118102V. Stach1.28115911123WSep 20 · 06:00V. Stach1.80111199113J. Hyrsl1.9194111152WSep 15 · 21:30V. Stach1.631311113M. Syroha2.1311950WSep 15 · 20:30M. Syroha1.731011411102V. Stach2.00126117123LSep 15 · 19:30V. Stach2.001011141172M. Varcl1.731291213113WSep 15 · 18:30J. Martinek2.754340V. Stach1.401111113WSep 15 · 17:30V. Stach1.87111014113M. Lubas1.834121251WSep 15 · 16:00V. Stach1.831111113L. Havrda1.839990LSep 15 · 15:30M. Lubas1.44149117113V. Stach2.63121191182WSep 15 · 14:00V. Stach2.751612711113J. Svec1.40181011752
J. Cernik10
WSep 20 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.83111110772J. Cernik1.83671211113LSep 20 · 06:30J. Cernik2.50811551J. Martinek1.5011511113WSep 18 · 13:30L. Novotny1.85118971J. Cernik1.8581111113WSep 18 · 12:00J. Cernik1.7311119113M. Marjan2.00891191LSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571WSep 18 · 10:00J. Cernik1.4091113113J. Strnad2.751171141WSep 18 · 09:12J. Cernik1.831113133M. Marjan1.83911110WSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113LSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik3.001189141M. Vaclavik1.3681111163WSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133
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