TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13145681
Played Sep 18Finished
Marcel Marjan
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3117111171113––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcel Marjan above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 74 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Marjan 4–3 Jaromir Cernik Jaromir Cernik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marjan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marjan 1162 vs Cernik 1192
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marjan 40% vs Cernik 100%
Cernik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marjan 50% vs Cernik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marjan +1 · Cernik +5
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marjan) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarjan 1.73 / Cernik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marjan)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13145681
Marjan1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Cernik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 48 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMarjan4wins
AwayCernik3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMarjan leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarjann = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayCernik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marjan1Cernik6n = 7Cernik took 6 of 7
S2Marjan4Cernik3n = 7Marjan took 4 of 7
S3Marjan5Cernik2n = 7Marjan took 5 of 7
S4Marjan2Cernik5n = 7Cernik took 5 of 7
S5Marjan3Cernik0n = 3Marjan took 3 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMarjanCernikM − CBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match39.741.0−1.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarjanCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 69 vs 363 / 79143.5%45.9%30 / 69 vs 363 / 791Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarjanMarjan 1.73/Cernik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Marjan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan323711111J. Cernik4211117133
LFeb 19 · 08:30M. Marjan21261121J. Cernik4111118113
WFeb 16 · 12:00M. Marjan4011117113J. Cernik27671131
WFeb 16 · 08:00M. Marjan52814118113J. Cernik44111251152
WJan 28 · 04:00M. Marjan511112116113J. Cernik48131051192
WJan 27 · 23:00M. Marjan51991111113J. Cernik4611119872
LJan 14 · 03:00M. Marjan31811481J. Cernik3911611113
M. Marjan10
LSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny1.801111113M. Marjan1.915680WMay 27 · 12:59C. Havrda2.0011951472M. Marjan1.738111112113LMay 27 · 12:30M. Marjan1.447940C. Havrda2.631111113LMay 27 · 11:00M. Marjan1.80611721D. Mutl1.9111611113LMay 27 · 10:00L. Madle1.33111189123M. Marjan3.25481111102WApr 18 · 09:29J. Svec1.73119491M. Marjan2.0091111113WApr 18 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.831061261M. Marjan1.83121110113LApr 18 · 07:00J. Svec1.80101111113M. Marjan1.91128761WApr 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.611111113J. Martinek2.206890WFeb 19 · 09:58P. Sprynar2.256950M. Marjan1.571111113
J. Cernik10
LSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik3.001189141M. Vaclavik1.3681111163WSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:30J. Strnad3.0011159121J. Cernik1.3661711143WSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 16 · 09:00L. Forman1.6771250J. Cernik2.101114113LSep 16 · 08:00J. Cernik1.9178131162J. Vrba1.801111117113LSep 16 · 07:30A. Hejduk1.611111133J. Cernik2.2049110LSep 16 · 06:00J. Cernik2.008760L. Forman1.731111113LSep 14 · 13:30J. Cernik2.259460D. Mutl1.571111113
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