TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13149371
Played Sep 18Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116118––––
Marcel Marjan
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Marcel Marjan below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 2–0 Marcel Marjan Marcel Marjan has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1168 vs Marjan 1162
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Marjan 20%
Novotny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Marjan 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Marjan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marjan form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.80 / Marjan 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novotny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13149371
Novotny1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 45 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Marjan1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNovotny2wins
AwayMarjan0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderNovotny leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNovotnyMarjanN − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.032.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyMarjanBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 374 vs 30 / 6949.7%43.5%186 / 374 vs 30 / 69Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.80/Marjan 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny331111113M. Marjan195680
WFeb 16 · 11:00L. Novotny47118125113M. Marjan45411101192
L. Novotny10
WSep 18 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.3612611762L. Novotny3.001011311113LSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:00L. Novotny1.57711116113J. Strnad2.2511141132WSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 12:00L. Novotny1.8381131192J. Cernik1.83117112113LSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191WSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352
M. Marjan10
LSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133WMay 27 · 12:59C. Havrda2.0011951472M. Marjan1.738111112113LMay 27 · 12:30M. Marjan1.447940C. Havrda2.631111113LMay 27 · 11:00M. Marjan1.80611721D. Mutl1.9111611113LMay 27 · 10:00L. Madle1.33111189123M. Marjan3.25481111102WApr 18 · 09:29J. Svec1.73119491M. Marjan2.0091111113WApr 18 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.831061261M. Marjan1.83121110113LApr 18 · 07:00J. Svec1.80101111113M. Marjan1.91128761WApr 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.611111113J. Martinek2.206890WFeb 19 · 09:58P. Sprynar2.256950M. Marjan1.571111113
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