TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13146902
Played Sep 18Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1188119111416––
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 72.4% is still 72.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
72.4%
72.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 88 set 4, 14-16 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 72.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 5–10 Miroslav Vaclavik Jaromir Cernik has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Vaclavik
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1182 vs Vaclavik 1257
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 100% vs Vaclavik 60%
Cernik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 60% vs Vaclavik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +6 · Vaclavik -1
Cernik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 3.00 / Vaclavik 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Vaclavik)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13146902
Cernik3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 48 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 70
Vaclavik1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 40 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik2wins
AwayVaclavik8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVaclavik leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik50%2 of 4
AwayVaclavik100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik4Vaclavik6n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S2Cernik4Vaclavik6n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S3Cernik2Vaclavik8n = 10Vaclavik took 8 of 10
S4Cernik1Vaclavik5n = 6Vaclavik took 5 of 6
S5Cernik2Vaclavik3n = 5Vaclavik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikVaclavikC − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.843.4−5.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 792 vs 106 / 19345.8%54.9%363 / 792 vs 106 / 193Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikCernik 3.00/Vaclavik 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik421189141M. Vaclavik4681111163
LSep 3 · 22:00J. Cernik2485110M. Vaclavik351111133
LJul 24 · 02:00J. Cernik2611690M. Vaclavik351311113
LJun 12 · 24:30J. Cernik227870M. Vaclavik331111113
WMay 23 · 13:30J. Cernik591115814113M. Vaclavik52413111682
LMay 23 · 10:00J. Cernik4691511652M. Vaclavik491113311113
LMay 19 · 23:00J. Cernik39101151122M. Vaclavik50128118113
LApr 12 · 22:30J. Cernik51131116652M. Vaclavik541131811113
LMar 16 · 01:30J. Cernik2451090M. Vaclavik341112113
WJan 28 · 02:00J. Cernik45113119113M. Vaclavik4661191192
J. Cernik10
WSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133WSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:30J. Strnad3.0011159121J. Cernik1.3661711143WSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 16 · 09:00L. Forman1.6771250J. Cernik2.101114113LSep 16 · 08:00J. Cernik1.9178131162J. Vrba1.801111117113LSep 16 · 07:30A. Hejduk1.611111133J. Cernik2.2049110LSep 16 · 06:00J. Cernik2.008760L. Forman1.731111113LSep 14 · 13:30J. Cernik2.259460D. Mutl1.571111113
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 18 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.67118811113M. Marjan2.1081111592LSep 18 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.3612611762L. Novotny3.001011311113WSep 17 · 13:30M. Vaclavik2.00121112113M. Varcl1.731041481LSep 17 · 12:00M. Varcl2.00941113113M. Vaclavik1.73111151172WSep 17 · 11:00Z. Kasinski2.38119691M. Vaclavik1.5371111113WSep 17 · 10:30M. Vaclavik1.8312911113L. Madle1.831011981LSep 17 · 08:58M. Vaclavik1.67912781J. Grohsgott2.10111011113WSep 17 · 08:30J. Grohsgott1.8078100M. Vaclavik1.911111123LSep 17 · 07:30M. Vaclavik2.0011119792J. Strnad1.73261111113LSep 17 · 06:30V. Sr1.50136116113M. Vaclavik2.50111171172
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