TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115511511––
Jaroslav Martinek
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Jaroslav Martinek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 67 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 5–12 Jaroslav Martinek Jaromir Cernik has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:16What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Martinek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Martinek
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1186 vs Martinek 1136
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 80% vs Martinek 20%
Cernik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 80% vs Martinek 20%
Cernik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +2 · Martinek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Martinek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinek form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.50 / Martinek 1.50
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Martinek)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13159249
Cernik2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 49 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Martinek1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 15)
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik1wins
AwayMartinek9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMartinek leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik0%0 of 3
AwayMartinek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik3Martinek7n = 10Martinek took 7 of 10
S2Cernik3Martinek7n = 10Martinek took 7 of 10
S3Cernik4Martinek6n = 10Martinek took 6 of 10
S4Cernik1Martinek6n = 7Martinek took 6 of 7
S5Cernik1Martinek3n = 4Martinek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikMartinekC − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.940.1−8.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikMartinekBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 792 vs 76 / 15946%47.8%364 / 792 vs 76 / 159Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinekCernik 2.50/Martinek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Martinek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Martinek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 06:30J. Cernik29811551J. Martinek3811511113
LAug 23 · 06:30J. Cernik23114351J. Martinek4181111113
LAug 15 · 09:30J. Cernik4067121142J. Martinek481111105113
LAug 15 · 07:30J. Cernik4311511972J. Martinek39611011113
LJul 11 · 08:00J. Cernik2569100J. Martinek341111123
LJun 28 · 06:30J. Cernik351151091J. Martinek3621112113
LJun 13 · 06:30J. Cernik2181030J. Martinek341112113
LMay 23 · 06:00J. Cernik186750J. Martinek331111113
LMar 29 · 03:30J. Cernik4181211822J. Martinek521110911113
WFeb 6 · 23:30J. Cernik44711123113J. Martinek46117101172
J. Cernik10
WSep 20 · 07:00J. Hyrsl1.83111110772J. Cernik1.83671211113WSep 18 · 13:30L. Novotny1.85118971J. Cernik1.8581111113WSep 18 · 12:00J. Cernik1.7311119113M. Marjan2.00891191LSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571WSep 18 · 10:00J. Cernik1.4091113113J. Strnad2.751171141WSep 18 · 09:12J. Cernik1.831113133M. Marjan1.83911110WSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113LSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik3.001189141M. Vaclavik1.3681111163WSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133WSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251
J. Martinek10
LSep 20 · 07:30J. Martinek3.50911118102V. Stach1.28115911123LSep 15 · 21:07M. Varcl1.53101111113J. Martinek2.38129861WSep 15 · 20:00M. Varcl1.36119771J. Martinek3.0061111113LSep 15 · 19:00M. Syroha1.331111113J. Martinek3.253750LSep 15 · 18:30J. Martinek2.754340V. Stach1.401111113LSep 11 · 20:58V. Stach1.4411312113J. Martinek2.637111051LSep 11 · 20:30J. Martinek1.67871181J. Hyrsl2.1011118113LSep 11 · 19:00J. Martinek2.259111091V. Stach1.5711912113LSep 11 · 18:00J. Pelikan1.501111113J. Martinek2.508630LSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051
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