TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147281
Played Sep 18Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119115117––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:39 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 56.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 11–19 Jaromir Cernik Ladislav Novotny has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1160 vs Cernik 1212
Cernik
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Cernik 80%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 60% vs Cernik 80%
Cernik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Cernik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.10 / Cernik 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Cernik)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147281
Novotny2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Cernik1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 62 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it81% 43 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny4wins
AwayCernik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny40%2 of 5
AwayCernik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S2Novotny5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Novotny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Novotny5Cernik4n = 9Novotny took 5 of 9
S5Novotny1Cernik2n = 3Cernik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyCernikN − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.039.2−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 377 vs 366 / 79549.6%46%187 / 377 vs 366 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikNovotny 2.10/Cernik 1.67
Miss
What we said
56.2%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny4561381172J. Cernik491111115113
LSep 16 · 13:30L. Novotny28129251J. Cernik43101111113
LSep 16 · 11:30L. Novotny34139751J. Cernik44111111113
LSep 14 · 12:00L. Novotny4281131192J. Cernik42117112113
LSep 10 · 10:30L. Novotny33117961J. Cernik3961111113
WSep 10 · 06:30L. Novotny351111133J. Cernik2247110
WSep 1 · 06:00L. Novotny55911915113J. Cernik44115111342
WAug 28 · 10:30L. Novotny4211911113J. Cernik33711871
WAug 28 · 06:30L. Novotny3741111113J. Cernik30114691
LAug 15 · 08:00L. Novotny391361191J. Cernik4615119113
L. Novotny10
WSep 18 · 12:30J. Strnad2.206780L. Novotny1.611111113LSep 18 · 10:30M. Marjan2.0212117113L. Novotny1.701071181WSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny2.3811133123M. Vaclavik1.5351111101LSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113WSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny1.801111113M. Marjan1.915680WSep 18 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.3612611762L. Novotny3.001011311113LSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:00L. Novotny1.57711116113J. Strnad2.2511141132
J. Cernik10
WSep 18 · 12:00J. Cernik1.7311119113M. Marjan2.00891191WSep 18 · 10:00J. Cernik1.4091113113J. Strnad2.751171141WSep 18 · 09:12J. Cernik1.831113133M. Marjan1.83911110WSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113LSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik3.001189141M. Vaclavik1.3681111163WSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133WSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:30J. Strnad3.0011159121J. Cernik1.3661711143WSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113
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