TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13152129
Played Sep 18Finished
Marcel Marjan
Home
2.02
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210117711118––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcel Marjan above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Marcel Marjan 0–2 Ladislav Novotny Marcel Marjan has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Novotny beat Marjan 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marjan 1141 vs Novotny 1172
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marjan 20% vs Novotny 60%
Novotny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marjan 30% vs Novotny 60%
Novotny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marjan -4 · Novotny +1
Marjan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marjan form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarjan 2.02 / Novotny 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novotny)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13152129
Marjan2.02
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Novotny1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 45 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMarjan0wins
AwayNovotny2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderNovotny leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMarjanNovotnyM − NBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match32.040.0−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarjanNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 69 vs 187 / 37643.5%49.7%30 / 69 vs 187 / 376Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyMarjan 2.02/Novotny 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marjan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 18 · 07:00M. Marjan195680L. Novotny331111113
LFeb 16 · 11:00M. Marjan45411101192L. Novotny47118125113
M. Marjan10
LSep 18 · 11:00J. Strnad2.63511411113M. Marjan1.4411711822LSep 18 · 09:12J. Cernik1.831113133M. Marjan1.83911110LSep 18 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.67118811113M. Marjan2.1081111592LSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny1.801111113M. Marjan1.915680LSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133WMay 27 · 12:59C. Havrda2.0011951472M. Marjan1.738111112113LMay 27 · 12:30M. Marjan1.447940C. Havrda2.631111113LMay 27 · 11:00M. Marjan1.80611721D. Mutl1.9111611113LMay 27 · 10:00L. Madle1.33111189123M. Marjan3.25481111102WApr 18 · 09:29J. Svec1.73119491M. Marjan2.0091111113
L. Novotny10
WSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571WSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny2.3811133123M. Vaclavik1.5351111101LSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113WSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny1.801111113M. Marjan1.915680WSep 18 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.3612611762L. Novotny3.001011311113LSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:00L. Novotny1.57711116113J. Strnad2.2511141132WSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100
Upcoming Matches
M. Marjan
Nothing scheduled
L. Novotny
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