TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153713
Played Sep 18Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118811911711––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 12–19 Jaromir Cernik Ladislav Novotny has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Novotny beat Cernik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Cernik
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1174 vs Cernik 1237
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Cernik 80%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 60% vs Cernik 80%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Cernik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.85 / Cernik 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernik)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153713
Novotny1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Cernik1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny5wins
AwayCernik5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny40%2 of 5
AwayCernik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S2Novotny6Cernik4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Novotny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Novotny6Cernik3n = 9Novotny took 6 of 9
S5Novotny1Cernik2n = 3Cernik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyCernikN − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.237.8+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 379 vs 367 / 79749.9%46.1%189 / 379 vs 367 / 797Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikNovotny 1.85/Cernik 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny4181111113J. Cernik32119571
LSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny4561381172J. Cernik491111115113
LSep 16 · 13:30L. Novotny28129251J. Cernik43101111113
LSep 16 · 11:30L. Novotny34139751J. Cernik44111111113
LSep 14 · 12:00L. Novotny4281131192J. Cernik42117112113
LSep 10 · 10:30L. Novotny33117961J. Cernik3961111113
WSep 10 · 06:30L. Novotny351111133J. Cernik2247110
WSep 1 · 06:00L. Novotny55911915113J. Cernik44115111342
WAug 28 · 10:30L. Novotny4211911113J. Cernik33711871
WAug 28 · 06:30L. Novotny3741111113J. Cernik30114691
L. Novotny10
WSep 18 · 12:30J. Strnad2.206780L. Novotny1.611111113WSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571LSep 18 · 10:30M. Marjan2.0212117113L. Novotny1.701071181WSep 18 · 09:28L. Novotny2.3811133123M. Vaclavik1.5351111101LSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113WSep 18 · 07:00L. Novotny1.801111113M. Marjan1.915680WSep 18 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.3612611762L. Novotny3.001011311113LSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751
J. Cernik10
WSep 18 · 12:00J. Cernik1.7311119113M. Marjan2.00891191LSep 18 · 11:30L. Novotny2.1081111113J. Cernik1.67119571WSep 18 · 10:00J. Cernik1.4091113113J. Strnad2.751171141WSep 18 · 09:12J. Cernik1.831113133M. Marjan1.83911110WSep 18 · 08:30L. Novotny2.1061381172J. Cernik1.671111115113LSep 18 · 07:30J. Cernik3.001189141M. Vaclavik1.3681111163WSep 18 · 06:30M. Marjan1.733711111J. Cernik2.0011117133WSep 16 · 13:30J. Cernik1.85101111113L. Novotny1.85129251WSep 16 · 12:30J. Strnad3.0011159121J. Cernik1.3661711143WSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
J. Cernik
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