TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Jiri Moravek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7119111161012––
Radek Bartunek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeRadek Bartunek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Moravek above · Radek Bartunek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 77 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Radek Bartunek at 61.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Moravek 6–11 Radek Bartunek Jiri Moravek has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bartunek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Bartunek
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravek 1451 vs Bartunek 1412
Moravek
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravek 80% vs Bartunek 60%
Moravek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravek 60% vs Bartunek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravek +4 · Bartunek +1
Moravek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bartunek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravek 2.25 / Bartunek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Bartunek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165688
Moravek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 12 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Bartunek1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 105 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it86% 78 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravek4wins
AwayBartunek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBartunek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravek75%3 of 4
AwayBartunek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravek4Bartunek6n = 10Bartunek took 6 of 10
S2Moravek5Bartunek5n = 10split evenly
S3Moravek5Bartunek5n = 10split evenly
S4Moravek4Bartunek2n = 6Moravek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravekBartunekM − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.634.8−1.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravekBartunekBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 173 vs 339 / 65548.6%51.8%84 / 173 vs 339 / 655Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartunekMoravek 2.25/Bartunek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Bartunek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bartunek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 27 · 21:28J. Moravek216690R. Bartunek331111113
LMay 27 · 20:00J. Moravek29931161R. Bartunek3911116113
LMay 20 · 21:30J. Moravek4276111172R. Bartunek50111189113
WMay 20 · 18:30J. Moravek4211119113R. Bartunek24441151
LMay 12 · 19:00J. Moravek46118611102R. Bartunek49711118123
WApr 19 · 20:59J. Moravek341112113R. Bartunek1811070
LApr 19 · 19:00J. Moravek208840R. Bartunek331111113
WApr 1 · 21:06J. Moravek45111112113R. Bartunek391381081
WApr 1 · 20:00J. Moravek331111113R. Bartunek228950
LMar 3 · 20:00J. Moravek24611431R. Bartunek4111811113
J. Moravek10
WSep 21 · 18:00V. Nohejl1.44111211792J. Moravek2.63814811113WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970WAug 27 · 19:00J. Moravek1.8391111113J. Framberk1.83114891LAug 27 · 18:00M. Stefek1.8311117113J. Moravek1.83791141LJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek1.801413851J. Framberk1.91161111113
R. Bartunek10
WSep 21 · 20:00V. Nohejl2.0012740R. Bartunek1.731411113WSep 21 · 18:30R. Bartunek1.5061111113M. Stefek2.50117881LSep 17 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.9112117892V. Dolezal1.801091111113WSep 17 · 02:30J. Steffan1.9159150R. Bartunek1.801111173LSep 17 · 01:00P. Picek1.4091111123R. Bartunek2.751179101WSep 16 · 23:30R. Bartunek2.001211113V. Dolezal1.7310680LSep 16 · 22:00R. Bartunek2.2048170M. Smrcek1.611111193WSep 15 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.671311113M. Stefek2.1011970WSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741LSep 15 · 01:30V. Dolezal1.57411311113R. Bartunek2.2511311692
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