TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13134150
Played Sep 16Finished
Radek Bartunek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
4118111719––––
Milan Smrcek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Bartunek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Bartunek above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 17-19
Point 70 set 3, 17-19 — our read held Radek Bartunek at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Radek Bartunek 6–12 Milan Smrcek Radek Bartunek has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:36What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Smrcek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Smrcek
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartunek 1410 vs Smrcek 1382
Bartunek
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartunek 60% vs Smrcek 20%
Bartunek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartunek 40% vs Smrcek 20%
Bartunek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartunek +2 · Smrcek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Smrcek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smrcek form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartunek 2.20 / Smrcek 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Smrcek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13134150
Bartunek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 43 of 118
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Smrcek1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 31 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartunek4wins
AwaySmrcek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmrcek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartunek66.7%2 of 3
AwaySmrcek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartunek3Smrcek7n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10
S2Bartunek5Smrcek5n = 10split evenly
S3Bartunek4Smrcek6n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S4Bartunek3Smrcek4n = 7Smrcek took 4 of 7
S5Bartunek2Smrcek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartunekSmrcekB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.339.2−2.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartunekSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime340 / 660 vs 247 / 50551.5%48.9%340 / 660 vs 247 / 505Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmrcekBartunek 2.20/Smrcek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Smrcek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smrcek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 22:00R. Bartunek2948170M. Smrcek411111193
WAug 24 · 02:30R. Bartunek4181111113M. Smrcek30119371
LMar 28 · 01:00R. Bartunek178360M. Smrcek331111113
LFeb 21 · 03:30R. Bartunek4361111872M. Smrcek48119611113
LFeb 19 · 18:00R. Bartunek361110781M. Smrcek4281211113
WFeb 19 · 16:30R. Bartunek46612125113M. Smrcek461110101142
LFeb 15 · 09:30R. Bartunek2311570M. Smrcek351311113
WJan 23 · 23:00R. Bartunek44111191123M. Smrcek42911111102
LJan 4 · 04:04R. Bartunek4241181182M. Smrcek43113117113
WJan 4 · 03:30R. Bartunek4211911113M. Smrcek32611961
R. Bartunek10
WSep 15 · 03:00R. Bartunek1.671311113M. Stefek2.1011970WSep 15 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.8311811113M. Stefek1.83311741LSep 15 · 01:30V. Dolezal1.57411311113R. Bartunek2.2511311692LSep 15 · 24:00R. Bartunek1.365101171V. Kosar3.0011127113WSep 14 · 23:00T. Regner2.50111110772R. Bartunek1.50561211113LSep 11 · 03:00O. Vitrovyj2.381111133R. Bartunek1.5356110LSep 11 · 02:30R. Bartunek2.6371240K. Darin1.441114113LSep 11 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj2.75111222113R. Bartunek1.406102491LSep 11 · 24:00R. Bartunek4.003780F. Briza1.221111113WSep 10 · 23:00T. Regner2.5011811452R. Bartunek1.50911111113
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121
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