TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Moravek vs Martin Stefek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Jiri Moravek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911114117––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:33 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Moravek to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Moravek above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 68 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Moravek at 59.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Moravek 6–3 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:33What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Moravek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Moravek
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravek 1447 vs Stefek 1347
Moravek
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravek 80% vs Stefek 20%
Moravek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravek 60% vs Stefek 30%
Moravek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravek -1 · Stefek -4
Stefek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Moravek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravek 1.57 / Stefek 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Moravek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165629
Moravek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 24 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Stefek2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 178 of 413
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 224
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 134
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMoravek6wins
AwayStefek3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderMoravek leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravek80%4 of 5
AwayStefek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravek5Stefek4n = 9Moravek took 5 of 9
S2Moravek3Stefek6n = 9Stefek took 6 of 9
S3Moravek8Stefek1n = 9Moravek took 8 of 9
S4Moravek5Stefek3n = 8Moravek took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMoravekStefekM − SBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.036.8+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravekStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 175 vs 595 / 124348.6%47.9%85 / 175 vs 595 / 1243Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravekMoravek 1.57/Stefek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Moravek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 21 · 20:30J. Moravek4211911113M. Stefek26411471
WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek331111113M. Stefek227690
LAug 27 · 21:28J. Moravek3812311662M. Stefek491011611113
LAug 27 · 18:00J. Moravek31791141M. Stefek4011117113
LMay 22 · 18:00J. Moravek30821191M. Stefek4211119113
WMay 17 · 16:59J. Moravek3511211113M. Stefek32711681
WMay 17 · 14:30J. Moravek4181111113M. Stefek30118381
WMay 12 · 20:59J. Moravek45131011113M. Stefek401112981
WMay 12 · 20:30J. Moravek561411911113M. Stefek5016911952
J. Moravek10
LSep 21 · 21:30R. Bartunek1.671111113J. Moravek2.087980LSep 21 · 19:00J. Moravek2.257911101R. Bartunek1.5711116123WSep 21 · 18:00V. Nohejl1.44111211792J. Moravek2.63814811113WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970WAug 27 · 19:00J. Moravek1.8391111113J. Framberk1.83114891
M. Stefek10
WSep 21 · 21:00V. Nohejl1.4051191182M. Stefek2.75114110113LSep 21 · 19:30M. Stefek2.5010980V. Nohejl1.501211113LSep 21 · 18:30R. Bartunek1.5061111113M. Stefek2.50117881LSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680LSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek1.83111221142T. Regner1.83514117113WSep 21 · 01:30L. Sulava1.911111711122M. Stefek1.80137116143LSep 21 · 24:00M. Stefek1.671014115102R. Hasmanda2.101212811123LSep 20 · 23:00J. Pleskot1.911191011113M. Stefek1.8061112452LAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690WAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662
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