TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151214211117411
Tomas Regner
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:07 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 88 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Martin Stefek at 57.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 23–23 Tomas Regner Dead even across their 46 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-23 in 46
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1391 vs Regner 1362
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 60% vs Regner 40%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Regner 50%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Regner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.83 / Regner 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13158789
Stefek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Regner1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek7wins
AwayRegner3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek60%3 of 5
AwayRegner20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek4Regner6n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S3Stefek6Regner4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Stefek5Regner2n = 7Stefek took 5 of 7
S5Stefek4Regner1n = 5Stefek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekRegnerS − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.9+0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime595 / 1239 vs 492 / 99748%49.4%595 / 1239 vs 492 / 997Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.83/Regner 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 02:30M. Stefek40111221142T. Regner48514117113
WSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek45481111113T. Regner3711118342
LSep 17 · 24:30M. Stefek361178101T. Regner4391111123
WSep 14 · 22:00M. Stefek371111153T. Regner2988130
WSep 9 · 16:30M. Stefek48121114113T. Regner431491281
WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek39312111123T. Regner471110115102
LAug 30 · 20:00M. Stefek177550T. Regner331111113
WAug 28 · 02:30M. Stefek49118118113T. Regner4271181152
WAug 25 · 22:00M. Stefek331111113T. Regner178450
WAug 24 · 16:00M. Stefek43911111113T. Regner4011116482
M. Stefek10
LSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680WSep 21 · 01:30L. Sulava1.911111711122M. Stefek1.80137116143LSep 21 · 24:00M. Stefek1.671014115102R. Hasmanda2.101212811123LSep 20 · 23:00J. Pleskot1.911191011113M. Stefek1.8061112452WSep 19 · 13:30J. Strnad2.10106100M. Stefek1.671211123WSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861LSep 19 · 11:30J. Strnad2.75141111113M. Stefek1.40169551WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551WSep 18 · 13:30M. Stefek1.50941111113P. Kulhanek2.4511117942WSep 18 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda1.8378100M. Stefek1.831111123
T. Regner10
WSep 21 · 02:58T. Regner1.831311113M. Stefek1.8311680LSep 21 · 01:00R. Hasmanda3.503111111113T. Regner1.2811139592LSep 20 · 23:30T. Regner1.8381111121L. Sulava1.8311913143WSep 20 · 22:00T. Regner1.50621111113J. Pleskot2.5011112482WSep 18 · 20:58T. Regner1.331411113J. Strnad3.2512870LSep 18 · 20:00V. Kosar2.00119119133T. Regner1.73411711112WSep 18 · 19:00J. Strnad3.2561111682T. Regner1.33118711113LSep 18 · 18:30T. Regner1.8311126872L. Sulava1.839101111113LSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek2.00481111113T. Regner1.7311118342WSep 17 · 01:30T. Regner1.67119118113M. Novak2.1091181192
Upcoming Matches
M. Stefek
T. Regner
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