TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13159590
Played Sep 19Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10126111012––––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-8
Point 57 set 3, 10-8 — our read held Martin Stefek at 62.5%
57 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 14–35 Martin Stefek Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 14 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Strnad beat Stefek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:18What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-35 in 49
Stefek
Correct
gap of 21 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1471 vs Stefek 1395
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 60% vs Stefek 80%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 50% vs Stefek 80%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +3 · Stefek +1
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.10 / Stefek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Stefek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13159590
Strnad2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 86 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 80
Stefek1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 113 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it94% 64 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad3wins
AwayStefek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnadn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad2Stefek8n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Strnad5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Strnad4Stefek6n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Strnad4Stefek2n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S5Strnad1Stefek3n = 4Stefek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadStefekStrnad − StefekBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.238.2−1.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1124 vs 595 / 123849.2%48.1%553 / 1124 vs 595 / 1238Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStrnad 2.10/Stefek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 11:30J. Strnad47141111113M. Stefek35169551
LJul 31 · 22:30J. Strnad4171341162M. Stefek491111115113
WJul 2 · 15:30J. Strnad331111113M. Stefek148150
LJun 29 · 10:00J. Strnad207490M. Stefek331111113
LJun 26 · 06:00J. Strnad2810990M. Stefek341211113
LJun 25 · 13:30J. Strnad43211101192M. Stefek44114126113
LJun 25 · 10:00J. Strnad32791151M. Stefek3811115113
LJun 24 · 01:30J. Strnad48128711102M. Stefek451011111123
LJun 23 · 13:00J. Strnad2614840M. Stefek381611113
WJun 23 · 12:00J. Strnad54911167113M. Stefek52119141172
J. Strnad10
WSep 19 · 12:30V. Sr2.208101411112J. Strnad1.611112129133WSep 19 · 11:30J. Strnad2.75141111113M. Stefek1.40169551WSep 19 · 10:30P. Berdych2.1041161162J. Strnad1.67118119113LSep 18 · 20:58T. Regner1.331411113J. Strnad3.2512870LSep 18 · 20:30J. Strnad2.007570L. Sulava1.731111113LSep 18 · 19:00J. Strnad3.2561111682T. Regner1.33118711113LSep 18 · 18:00V. Kosar1.44111268113J. Strnad2.63310111182WSep 17 · 21:28J. Strnad1.67111111113M. Barta2.10138751LSep 17 · 20:00J. Strnad1.617146111M. Barta2.20111211133WSep 17 · 19:30J. Svec2.755540J. Strnad1.401111113
M. Stefek10
WSep 19 · 12:00M. Stefek1.33121011113P. Berdych3.251012861LSep 19 · 11:30J. Strnad2.75141111113M. Stefek1.40169551WSep 19 · 10:00M. Stefek1.3681111113V. Sr3.00119551WSep 18 · 13:30M. Stefek1.50941111113P. Kulhanek2.4511117942WSep 18 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda1.8378100M. Stefek1.831111123WSep 18 · 11:00P. Kulhanek2.3840121172M. Stefek1.531111107113WSep 18 · 10:30M. Stefek1.671211123Z. Drabek2.10103100WSep 18 · 08:59M. Stefek1.6751113113Z. Zikmunda2.101141191WSep 18 · 08:00M. Stefek2.101113113Z. Zikmunda1.6721180LSep 18 · 07:30Z. Drabek2.101111123M. Stefek1.6796100
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