TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13147096
Played Sep 18Finished
Vaclav Kosar
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1149111179111311
Tomas Regner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Kosar above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 97 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Tomas Regner at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Kosar 5–9 Tomas Regner Vaclav Kosar has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 14:50What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Regner
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosar 1453 vs Regner 1356
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosar 80% vs Regner 60%
Kosar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosar 90% vs Regner 60%
Kosar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosar +3 · Regner +1
Kosar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kosar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosar 2.00 / Regner 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kosar)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13147096
Kosar2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog49% won 62 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Regner1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 92 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it88% 38 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it70% 62 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosar4wins
AwayRegner6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosar80%4 of 5
AwayRegner100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosar5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Kosar2Regner8n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S3Kosar6Regner4n = 10Kosar took 6 of 10
S4Kosar3Regner3n = 6split evenly
S5Kosar2Regner3n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosarRegnerK − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.2−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosarRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 419 vs 489 / 99152%49.3%218 / 419 vs 489 / 991Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosarKosar 2.00/Regner 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kosar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar341112113T. Regner2121090
LOct 26 · 12:00V. Kosar72320T. Regner331111113
LJul 20 · 03:00V. Kosar32119120T. Regner381311143
LJul 20 · 02:30V. Kosar257990T. Regner331111113
WJul 17 · 12:00V. Kosar50146118113T. Regner41121151122
WJul 16 · 11:00V. Kosar45117115113T. Regner4491151182
LJul 14 · 22:30V. Kosar48116111282T. Regner52811814113
WJul 12 · 21:04V. Kosar4011117113T. Regner28451181
LJul 12 · 20:30V. Kosar4769111292T. Regner501111710113
LJul 9 · 13:00V. Kosar4667131192T. Regner521111118113
V. Kosar10
WSep 18 · 19:30L. Sulava1.73661141V. Kosar2.0011119113WSep 18 · 18:00V. Kosar1.44111268113J. Strnad2.63310111182WSep 17 · 21:30R. Hasmanda2.45911841V. Kosar1.4811811113LSep 17 · 20:00V. Kosar2.10991191L. Sulava1.6711119113WSep 17 · 19:30M. Stefek1.83771491V. Kosar1.83111112113WSep 17 · 18:00V. Kosar1.6111117113R. Hasmanda2.20551191WSep 15 · 03:30V. Dolezal1.558360V. Kosar2.351111113WSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090WSep 15 · 01:00V. Kosar2.0011911203M. Stefek1.738116181WSep 15 · 24:00R. Bartunek1.365101171V. Kosar3.0011127113
T. Regner10
WSep 18 · 20:58T. Regner1.331411113J. Strnad3.2512870WSep 18 · 19:00J. Strnad3.2561111682T. Regner1.33118711113LSep 18 · 18:30T. Regner1.8311126872L. Sulava1.839101111113LSep 17 · 03:28M. Stefek2.00481111113T. Regner1.7311118342WSep 17 · 01:30T. Regner1.67119118113M. Novak2.1091181192WSep 17 · 24:30M. Stefek2.001178101T. Regner1.7391111123WSep 16 · 23:30R. Hasmanda2.755770T. Regner1.401111113LSep 16 · 22:30T. Regner1.91138941J. Framberk1.80111111113WSep 16 · 17:30T. Nohejl1.7110990T. Regner2.001211113LSep 15 · 02:00V. Kosar2.751112113T. Regner1.4021090
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