TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Derco
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119115––––
Zdenek Luksa
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:02 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Zdenek Luksa below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Michal Derco at 66.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 3–2 Zdenek Luksa Zdenek Luksa has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:02What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Derco
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derco 1267 vs Luksa 1195
Derco
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derco 40% vs Luksa 60%
Luksa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derco 50% vs Luksa 30%
Derco
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derco -1 · Luksa +3
Luksa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Derco)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Luksa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 1.40 / Luksa 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Derco)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13165536
Derco1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 14) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 20 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Luksa2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 21 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back33% 8 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDerco3wins
AwayLuksa2wins
Derco leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerco75%3 of 4
AwayLuksan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco4Luksa1n = 5Derco took 4 of 5
S2Derco3Luksa2n = 5Derco took 3 of 5
S3Derco4Luksa1n = 5Derco took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricDercoLuksaD − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match31.827.6+4.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoLuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 85 vs 52 / 11254.1%46.4%46 / 85 vs 52 / 112Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DercoDerco 1.40/Luksa 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derco won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 21 · 06:00M. Derco331111113Z. Luksa195950
WAug 2 · 09:29M. Derco331111113Z. Luksa175840
WAug 2 · 08:00M. Derco351111133Z. Luksa2164110
LMay 7 · 13:30M. Derco25115271Z. Luksa3741111113
LMay 7 · 11:30M. Derco338312101Z. Luksa44111110123
M. Derco10
LSep 14 · 08:58M. Derco1.67118881V. Rybar2.1091111113WSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113LSep 14 · 07:30M. Derco2.0011481162M. Levicky1.73911119113LSep 14 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311129113M. Derco2.005101191WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101
Z. Luksa10
WSep 12 · 17:30R. Adamczyk1.50139118102Z. Luksa2.501111711123WSep 12 · 16:30I. Kolenciak1.739760Z. Luksa2.001111113WSep 12 · 15:30Z. Luksa2.3871112113M. Blaha1.531191071LSep 12 · 14:30R. Adamczyk1.671111113Z. Luksa2.108980LSep 9 · 13:01I. Palmi1.6711912113Z. Luksa2.109111041LSep 9 · 12:00Z. Luksa1.83111191192I. Kolenciak1.83361113113LSep 9 · 11:30I. Palmi2.001311113Z. Luksa1.7311960LSep 9 · 10:00Z. Luksa1.36411971J. Toth3.0011511113LAug 27 · 13:30Z. Luksa1.536880D. Vavrecka2.201111113LAug 27 · 12:00M. Blaha1.83911119113Z. Luksa1.8311971192
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