TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13128434
Played Sep 14Finished
Michal Derco
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811811811––
Vaclav Rybar
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMichal Derco above · Vaclav Rybar below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Derco 3–0 Vaclav Rybar Vaclav Rybar has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Derco beat Rybar 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Derco)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derco form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerco 1.67 / Rybar 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Derco)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13128434
Derco1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 22 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Rybar2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 6 of 12
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDerco3wins
AwayRybar0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDerco leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derco2Rybar1n = 3Derco took 2 of 3
S2Derco2Rybar1n = 3Derco took 2 of 3
S3Derco2Rybar1n = 3Derco took 2 of 3
S4Derco2Rybar1n = 3Derco took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricDercoRybarD − RBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.736.3+7.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDercoRybarBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 87 vs 21 / 3952.9%53.9%46 / 87 vs 21 / 39Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DercoDerco 1.67/Rybar 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Derco · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rybar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 14 · 08:30M. Derco4211911113V. Rybar29711651
WAug 20 · 18:00M. Derco4181111113V. Rybar32118761
WAug 10 · 11:00M. Derco48131356113V. Rybar481111111142
M. Derco10
WSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113LSep 14 · 07:30M. Derco2.0011481162M. Levicky1.73911119113LSep 14 · 06:30M. Kaspar1.7311129113M. Derco2.005101191WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113
V. Rybar10
LSep 14 · 08:30V. Rybar1.80711651M. Derco1.9111911113LSep 14 · 07:00V. Rybar1.83108111152M. Kaspar1.83121186113LSep 14 · 06:00M. Levicky2.00116118113V. Rybar1.7391161172WAug 20 · 21:30M. Blaha1.90951161V. Rybar1.8011117113WAug 20 · 20:00V. Rybar1.3613811113T. Navrat3.001111661WAug 20 · 19:30M. Blaha1.91111166112V. Rybar1.80891111133LAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113LAug 10 · 13:28V. Rybar1.403870P. Banot2.751111113WAug 10 · 12:30V. Rybar1.611111113D. Vavrecka2.206450LAug 10 · 11:00V. Rybar1.801111111142M. Derco1.91131356113
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