TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126041
Played Sep 14Finished
Michal Kaspar
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151210911119––
Michal Derco
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Derco to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Kaspar above · Michal Derco below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Michal Derco at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kaspar 1–0 Michal Derco Michal Derco has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:46What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kaspar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kaspar 1251 vs Derco 1240
Kaspar
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaspar 60% vs Derco 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaspar 50% vs Derco 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaspar +2 · Derco +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaspar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaspar 1.73 / Derco 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaspar)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126041
Kaspar1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite25% won 4 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it50% 3 of 6
Derco2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 14 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back36% 5 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKaspar1wins
AwayDerco0wins
Kaspar leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKasparDercoK − DBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.035.0+8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasparDercoBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 165 vs 45 / 8544.2%52.9%73 / 165 vs 45 / 85Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasparKaspar 1.73/Derco 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaspar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kaspar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 14 · 06:30M. Kaspar4311129113M. Derco355101191
M. Kaspar10
WSep 10 · 12:59M. Kaspar1.831111611143M. Levicky1.83813118122WSep 10 · 12:30D. Tyn1.80114111052M. Kaspar1.91311612113LSep 10 · 11:30M. Kaspar2.639690V. Kocian1.441111113WSep 10 · 10:30M. Levicky1.73111212572M. Kaspar2.009141011113LSep 7 · 08:59M. Kaspar1.731211981M. Levicky2.0014211113LSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:30M. Kaspar1.8311811942D. Tyn1.83811611113WSep 7 · 06:30M. Levicky1.837111081M. Kaspar1.8311712113WAug 30 · 12:59M. Levicky1.5716137992M. Kaspar2.2514111111113LAug 30 · 12:00M. Levicky1.831111113M. Kaspar1.837860
M. Derco10
WAug 20 · 21:14M. Derco2.0281111113T. Navrat1.70118461LAug 20 · 20:30M. Derco2.63111191342M. Blaha1.44881115113LAug 20 · 19:00M. Derco1.83118121192T. Navrat1.831311106113WAug 20 · 18:00V. Rybar2.00118761M. Derco1.7381111113WAug 16 · 08:58D. Vavrecka2.00741161M. Derco1.7311119113WAug 16 · 08:30M. Derco1.6711116123D. Vavrecka2.108711101LAug 16 · 07:00M. Derco2.631281121M. Blaha1.4414118113LAug 16 · 06:00P. Banot1.611111113M. Derco2.209380WAug 10 · 12:58M. Derco2.3891111143D. Vavrecka1.531134121LAug 10 · 12:00P. Banot1.8311611113M. Derco1.83911421
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