TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104684
Played Sep 10Finished
Michal Kaspar
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611911––––
Vojtech Kocian
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeVojtech Kocian to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Kaspar above · Vojtech Kocian below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Vojtech Kocian at 65.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H Michal Kaspar 1–4 Vojtech Kocian Michal Kaspar has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kocian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Kocian
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaspar 1213 vs Kocian 1335
Kocian
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaspar 40% vs Kocian 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaspar 20% vs Kocian 50%
Kocian
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaspar -3 · Kocian -2
Kaspar
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kocian) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocian form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaspar 2.63 / Kocian 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Kocian)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104684
Kaspar2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 23 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back32% 10 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Kocian1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 46 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 33 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKaspar1wins
AwayKocian4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKocian leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasparn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKocian100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaspar1Kocian4n = 5Kocian took 4 of 5
S2Kaspar1Kocian4n = 5Kocian took 4 of 5
S3Kaspar2Kocian3n = 5Kocian took 3 of 5
S4Kaspar2Kocian1n = 3Kaspar took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricKasparKocianKaspar − KocianBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.038.8−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasparKocianBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 167 vs 88 / 17043.7%51.8%73 / 167 vs 88 / 170Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocianKaspar 2.63/Kocian 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Kocian · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kocian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 7 · 08:30M. Kaspar—86110V. Kocian—1111133
LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar—68111582V. Kocian—1111913113
LAug 17 · 12:58M. Kaspar—911751V. Kocian—11511113
WAug 17 · 11:30M. Kaspar—11911113V. Kocian—511881
LJun 16 · 08:30M. Kaspar—71060V. Kocian—1112113
M. Kaspar10
WSep 10 · 10:30M. Levicky1.73111212572M. Kaspar2.009141011113LSep 7 · 08:59M. Kaspar1.731211981M. Levicky2.0014211113LSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:30M. Kaspar1.8311811942D. Tyn1.83811611113WSep 7 · 06:30M. Levicky1.837111081M. Kaspar1.8311712113WAug 30 · 12:59M. Levicky1.5716137992M. Kaspar2.2514111111113LAug 30 · 12:00M. Levicky1.831111113M. Kaspar1.837860LAug 30 · 11:00D. Tyn1.91115115113M. Kaspar1.8091191152LAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar2.2568111582V. Kocian1.571111913113LAug 18 · 09:30M. Kaspar1.83881131Z. Zientek1.8311118113
V. Kocian10
LSep 10 · 10:00V. Kocian1.759129101D. Tyn1.85111011123LSep 7 · 09:30V. Kocian1.57115891D. Tyn2.2591111113WSep 7 · 08:30V. Kocian1.531111133M. Kaspar2.3886110LSep 7 · 07:00V. Kocian1.7311491172M. Levicky2.00811119113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Tyn2.001110991V. Kocian1.7351211113LAug 30 · 13:30V. Kocian1.7395110D. Tyn2.001111133WAug 30 · 12:30D. Tyn2.10671191V. Kocian1.6711115113WAug 30 · 11:30V. Kocian2.25511119113M. Levicky1.5711541152WAug 30 · 10:30M. Kaspar2.2568111582V. Kocian1.571111913113LAug 22 · 21:28V. Kocian1.57116761D. Tyn2.2551111113
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