TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181210411811
Dawid Michna
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:42 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Murawski to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Michal Murawski at 59.4%
94 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 19–14 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Murawski beat Michna 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Murawski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Murawski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1854 vs Michna 1921
Michna
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 20% vs Michna 40%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 50% vs Michna 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski -4 · Michna +1
Murawski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Murawski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Murawski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 1.73 / Michna 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Murawski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13165404
Murawski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Michna2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 111 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMurawski4wins
AwayMichna6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMurawski60%3 of 5
AwayMichna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Murawski5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2Murawski9Michna1n = 10Murawski took 9 of 10
S3Murawski5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S4Murawski0Michna7n = 7Michna took 7 of 7
S5Murawski1Michna2n = 3Michna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMurawskiMichnaMurawski − MichnaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.437.7+0.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 769 vs 519 / 94659.2%54.9%455 / 769 vs 519 / 946Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.839.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MurawskiMurawski 1.73/Michna 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Murawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 06:30M. Murawski48811117113D. Michna4411961172
LMar 10 · 13:45M. Murawski451111101032D. Michna53991212113
LMar 10 · 04:05M. Murawski35811971D. Michna4211911113
LMar 9 · 10:10M. Murawski351261161D. Michna45101113113
WMar 6 · 04:20M. Murawski331111113D. Michna228770
LMar 5 · 09:20M. Murawski43141111342D. Michna51167611113
LFeb 8 · 11:45M. Murawski37911981D. Michna4211911113
LNov 16 · 15:30M. Murawski4010111091D. Michna4212712113
WNov 16 · 10:10M. Murawski351113113D. Michna2451180
WOct 26 · 15:30M. Murawski331111113D. Michna126150
M. Murawski10
LSep 21 · 12:55M. Murawski2.2012111031M. Jadczyk1.61101312113LSep 21 · 11:40M. Murawski2.202670G. Felkel1.611111113LSep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski1.91911591A. Wiecek1.8011911113LSep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73811101152J. Kuzmicz2.00116128113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski1.831181111113M. Jadczyk1.8391113472WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113
D. Michna10
WSep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.4461111113J. Kuzmicz2.63116791LSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6712914113D. Michna2.1010111271LSep 21 · 10:50G. Felkel1.671111113D. Michna2.106880LSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 07:45D. Michna2.20711911113M. Jadczyk1.6111811452LSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113WSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512
Upcoming Matches
M. Murawski
D. Michna
Sep 22 · 03:45D. Michna2.63J. Kosowski1.44—Sep 22 · 04:30D. Michna1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 06:55D. Michna2.10M. Murawski1.67—Sep 22 · 07:45D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 09:20D. Michna1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 22 · 10:50D. Michna1.67K. Kolodziej2.10—Sep 22 · 12:05D. Michna2.00A. Wiecek1.73—Sep 22 · 13:20D. Michna2.10J. Braun1.67—Sep 22 · 14:35D. Michna2.63J. Kosowski1.44—
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