TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119711911118
Adrian Wiecek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 24–46 Adrian Wiecek Dawid Michna has won 24 of their 70 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:54What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wiecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-46 in 70
Wiecek
Wrong
gap of 22 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1907 vs Wiecek 1857
Michna
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs Wiecek 40%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 60% vs Wiecek 40%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna +1 · Wiecek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wiecek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.00 / Wiecek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wiecek)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13164846
Michna2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 10) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 109 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back35% 40 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 48
Wiecek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 15)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 177 of 273
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 127 of 159
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna5wins
AwayWiecek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna50%2 of 4
AwayWiecek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna4Wiecek6n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S2Michna4Wiecek6n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S3Michna6Wiecek4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Michna3Wiecek7n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S5Michna4Wiecek1n = 5Michna took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaWiecekM − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.546.2−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime528 / 965 vs 765 / 139054.7%55%528 / 965 vs 765 / 1390Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.140.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekMichna 2.00/Wiecek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna41411411112A. Wiecek48114119133
LSep 9 · 06:55D. Michna33118591A. Wiecek4291111113
LSep 4 · 13:45D. Michna37891191A. Wiecek4211119113
WSep 4 · 08:30D. Michna4211713113A. Wiecek399111181
WSep 3 · 09:40D. Michna5911111011163A. Wiecek57139129142
WAug 18 · 10:25D. Michna48911125113A. Wiecek47119101162
LAug 18 · 03:25D. Michna34861281A. Wiecek43111110113
LAug 17 · 10:00D. Michna30113791A. Wiecek4181111113
WAug 17 · 05:40D. Michna53119119133A. Wiecek47611811112
WJul 28 · 12:55D. Michna581011179113A. Wiecek56129151192
D. Michna10
WSep 21 · 04:10G. Felkel1.807990D. Michna1.911111113WSep 10 · 14:10D. Michna1.83911911113G. Felkel1.8311611512LSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962WSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113LSep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.8311117111K. Kolodziej1.8381311133WSep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.101311113M. Jadczyk1.6711990LSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela1.671211113D. Michna2.1010990LSep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00126111182G. Felkel1.73141167113WSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk1.6771111842D. Michna2.10117611113WSep 10 · 04:40M. Miastowski1.8311211962D. Michna1.83711811113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 15 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.2011119113M. Jadczyk1.61991181WSep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.50911118113K. Strowski2.5011491172LSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113LSep 15 · 10:00M. Olejnik1.6711711113A. Wiecek2.10711781LSep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.2511168111T. Spanik1.57131411133LSep 15 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.57118101192K. Strowski2.25911123113LSep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10111191152M. Olejnik1.67139119113WSep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67101111113J. Braun2.10125591WSep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.0011815113T. Spanik1.736111361
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
A. Wiecek
Sep 21 · 06:05A. Wiecek2.10M. Jadczyk1.67—Sep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—Sep 21 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.73G. Felkel2.00—Sep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57D. Michna2.25—Sep 21 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.67M. Murawski2.10—Sep 21 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.67J. Kuzmicz2.10—Sep 21 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.73G. Felkel2.00—Sep 21 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10M. Jadczyk1.67—
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