TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128939
Played Sep 15Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1168111513116––
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:13 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 81 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 57.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 15–14 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 14h before this match
Spanik beat Wiecek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1872 vs Spanik 1913
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 20% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Spanik 70%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -3 · Spanik -1
Wiecek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 2.00 / Spanik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13128939
Wiecek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 79 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Spanik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 152 of 261
Up 2–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it75% 108 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwaySpanik5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek62.5%5 of 8
AwaySpanikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek8Spanik2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S2Wiecek3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Wiecek4Spanik6n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek7Spanik3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S5Wiecek2Spanik4n = 6Spanik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekSpanikW − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match46.345.3+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime771 / 1404 vs 243 / 43654.9%55.7%771 / 1404 vs 243 / 436Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikWiecek 2.00/Spanik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek4511815113T. Spanik366111361
LSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek50118712122T. Spanik559111110143
WSep 14 · 06:30A. Wiecek3911512113T. Spanik366111091
WSep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek531114116113T. Spanik4991671162
LSep 8 · 14:35A. Wiecek36129781T. Spanik43101111113
LSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek50181174102T. Spanik591691111123
WAug 18 · 14:10A. Wiecek47117711113T. Spanik4071111562
LAug 18 · 05:15A. Wiecek4889111192T. Spanik47111177113
WAug 17 · 14:35A. Wiecek4414118113T. Spanik391281181
LAug 17 · 06:30A. Wiecek511011101192T. Spanik49129125113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 15 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.678131091M. Miastowski2.10111112113LSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143LSep 14 · 12:55A. Wiecek2.3838130M. Jadczyk1.531111153WSep 14 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.6191214113K. Strowski2.2011101291LSep 14 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.9141111662K. Petas1.80119811113WSep 14 · 09:00A. Wiecek1.44129811113K. Wloczko2.63101111962LSep 14 · 08:05A. Wiecek1.44710100K. Wloczko2.631112123WSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113WSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182
T. Spanik10
LSep 15 · 03:25T. Spanik1.73127861K. Strowski2.00101111113WSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143LSep 14 · 13:20T. Spanik1.73681191K. Wloczko2.0011115113WSep 14 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.001011101172T. Spanik1.73128127113WSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113WSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113WSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:15T. Spanik1.6791111113K. Wloczko2.10114821WSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
Sep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67J. Braun2.10—Sep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 15 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.57K. Strowski2.25—Sep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 10:00A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.67J. Braun2.10—Sep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.57K. Strowski2.25—Sep 15 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.20M. Jadczyk1.61—
T. Spanik
Sep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik1.57M. Miastowski2.25—Sep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.61J. Braun2.20—Sep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.20M. Olejnik1.61—Sep 15 · 09:20T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 15 · 10:50T. Spanik1.73K. Strowski2.00—Sep 15 · 12:05T. Spanik1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.61J. Braun2.20—Sep 15 · 14:35T. Spanik2.10M. Olejnik1.67—
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