TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13128937
Played Sep 15Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210711811611––
Karol Strowski
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Karol Strowski below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 2–2 Karol Strowski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Spanik beat Strowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:01What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1944 vs Strowski 1766
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 80% vs Strowski 40%
Spanik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 70% vs Strowski 40%
Spanik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +1 · Strowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.73 / Strowski 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Spanik)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13128937
Spanik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 147 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 105 of 141
Strowski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSpanik2wins
AwayStrowski2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik1Strowski3n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
S2Spanik2Strowski2n = 4split evenly
S3Spanik4Strowski0n = 4Spanik took 4 of 4
S4Spanik1Strowski3n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSpanikStrowskiSpanik − StrowskiBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match42.241.0+1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikStrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 434 vs 813 / 139556%58.3%243 / 434 vs 813 / 1395Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.73/Strowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 20 · 10:00T. Spanik47117117113K. Strowski4671191182
LJun 20 · 13:20T. Spanik36971191K. Strowski4011117113
WJun 20 · 10:50T. Spanik4181111113K. Strowski32115791
LMay 5 · 11:55T. Spanik4591111772K. Strowski46116711113
T. Spanik10
WSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143LSep 14 · 13:20T. Spanik1.73681191K. Wloczko2.0011115113WSep 14 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.001011101172T. Spanik1.73128127113WSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113WSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113WSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:15T. Spanik1.6791111113K. Wloczko2.10114821WSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113
K. Strowski10
LSep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.83811101172K. Wloczko1.83116129113WSep 14 · 12:30K. Petas1.6111971162K. Strowski2.20511118113LSep 14 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.6191214113K. Strowski2.2011101291LSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113WSep 14 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75761111113M. Jadczyk1.4011117962LSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552LSep 14 · 07:20K. Strowski1.915830K. Wloczko1.801111113WSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113LSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182WSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik
Sep 15 · 04:10T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 15 · 05:15T. Spanik1.57M. Miastowski2.25—Sep 15 · 06:30T. Spanik1.61J. Braun2.20—Sep 15 · 07:45T. Spanik2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 15 · 09:20T. Spanik1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Sep 15 · 10:50T. Spanik1.73K. Strowski2.00—Sep 15 · 12:05T. Spanik1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Sep 15 · 13:20T. Spanik1.61J. Braun2.20—Sep 15 · 14:35T. Spanik2.10M. Olejnik1.67—
K. Strowski
Sep 15 · 04:55K. Strowski2.00J. Braun1.73—Sep 15 · 06:05K. Strowski3.00M. Olejnik1.36—Sep 15 · 07:20K. Strowski2.20M. Miastowski1.61—Sep 15 · 08:30K. Strowski2.25A. Wiecek1.57—Sep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Sep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 11:40K. Strowski3.00M. Olejnik1.36—Sep 15 · 12:30K. Strowski2.25A. Wiecek1.57—Sep 15 · 14:10K. Strowski2.00J. Braun1.73—
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