TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125408
Played Sep 14Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111151012911––
Adrian Wiecek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 13–13 Adrian Wiecek Dead even across their 26 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-13 in 26
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1869 vs Wiecek 1936
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 60% vs Wiecek 80%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 50% vs Wiecek 80%
Wiecek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +2 · Wiecek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.80 / Wiecek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Spanik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13125408
Spanik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 147 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 105 of 141
Wiecek1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 79 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik5wins
AwayWiecek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik75%3 of 4
AwayWiecek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Wiecek6n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S2Spanik5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S3Spanik6Wiecek4n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S4Spanik3Wiecek5n = 8Wiecek took 5 of 8
S5Spanik3Wiecek2n = 5Spanik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikWiecekS − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.943.4−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 428 vs 768 / 139655.6%55%238 / 428 vs 768 / 1396Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.80/Wiecek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 08:30T. Spanik4991671162A. Wiecek531114116113
WSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik43101111113A. Wiecek36129781
WSep 8 · 03:45T. Spanik591691111123A. Wiecek50181174102
LAug 18 · 14:10T. Spanik4071111562A. Wiecek47117711113
WAug 18 · 05:15T. Spanik47111177113A. Wiecek4889111192
LAug 17 · 14:35T. Spanik391281181A. Wiecek4414118113
WAug 17 · 06:30T. Spanik49129125113A. Wiecek511011101192
LJun 2 · 12:25T. Spanik2581070A. Wiecek341112113
WJun 2 · 05:05T. Spanik341111123A. Wiecek2248100
LJun 1 · 13:15T. Spanik441198161A. Wiecek4991111183
T. Spanik10
WSep 14 · 05:15T. Spanik1.6791111113K. Wloczko2.10114821WSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113WSep 10 · 16:06T. Spanik1.301111102J. Skalda3.4055100LSep 9 · 13:50T. Spanik1.3712121181J. Kuzmicz2.70101413113LSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.70115281J. Braun2.0081111113WSep 9 · 11:20T. Spanik1.2491111113K. Wisniewski3.45116891WSep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel2.608870T. Spanik1.441111113LSep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.54116861M. Benes2.2561111113LSep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.611114116113T. Spanik2.2091671162
A. Wiecek10
WSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113WSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182LSep 14 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.38121351182M. Jadczyk1.531411117113WSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171WSep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.4461111113K. Kolodziej2.63116771LSep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.739117121G. Felkel2.0011711143WSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.10411411112A. Wiecek1.67114119133WSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.611114116113T. Spanik2.2091671162WSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591
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