TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125497
Played Sep 14Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116119611118
Karol Strowski
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:56 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Karol Strowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 93 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 62.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 32–13 Karol Strowski Karol Strowski has won 13 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:56What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-13 in 45
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 19 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1908 vs Strowski 1781
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 60% vs Strowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 60% vs Strowski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · Strowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Wiecek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.53 / Strowski 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Wiecek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125497
Wiecek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 179 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it81% 133 of 164
Strowski2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek7wins
AwayStrowski3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek100%7 of 7
AwayStrowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek7Strowski3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S2Wiecek6Strowski4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S3Wiecek3Strowski7n = 10Strowski took 7 of 10
S4Wiecek5Strowski2n = 7Wiecek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekStrowskiW − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.1+1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekStrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime765 / 1393 vs 810 / 138654.9%58.4%765 / 1393 vs 810 / 1386Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.53/Strowski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 7 · 12:30A. Wiecek3181490K. Strowski381116113
WJul 6 · 09:00A. Wiecek44121110113K. Strowski381081281
WJul 6 · 09:00A. Wiecek44121110113K. Strowski381081281
LJun 30 · 14:35A. Wiecek237970K. Strowski331111113
WMay 13 · 13:10A. Wiecek54141199113K. Strowski48127111172
LMay 5 · 19:45A. Wiecek371011791K. Strowski4312911113
WApr 13 · 19:45A. Wiecek331111113K. Strowski268990
WMar 16 · 19:35A. Wiecek4112711113K. Strowski381011891
WMar 9 · 20:45A. Wiecek45111112113K. Strowski38981471
WMar 2 · 18:25A. Wiecek4411814113K. Strowski419111291
A. Wiecek10
WSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113LSep 14 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.38121351182M. Jadczyk1.531411117113WSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171WSep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.4461111113K. Kolodziej2.63116771LSep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.739117121G. Felkel2.0011711143WSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.10411411112A. Wiecek1.67114119133WSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.67117137133A. Grela2.104111111112WSep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.611114116113T. Spanik2.2091671162WSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.8396121162A. Grela1.831111108113
K. Strowski10
WSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113WSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552LSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113LSep 11 · 18:30K. Strowski1.8311591132M. Nowalinski1.83611119113WSep 11 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.50881141K. Strowski1.5011115113WSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780LSep 11 · 15:45K. Strowski1.91671141K. Wloczko1.8011117113WSep 11 · 14:10K. Strowski2.7511112113M. Jadczyk1.40961181WSep 11 · 12:55K. Strowski3.0081111113M. Olejnik1.36119781WSep 11 · 11:15K. Strowski1.9181113113J. Kuzmicz1.801191191
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
K. Strowski
Sep 14 · 07:20K. Strowski1.91K. Wloczko1.80—Sep 14 · 08:30K. Strowski2.20K. Petas1.61—Sep 14 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Sep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20T. Spanik1.61—Sep 14 · 11:40K. Strowski2.38A. Wiecek1.53—Sep 14 · 12:30K. Strowski2.20K. Petas1.61—Sep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.91K. Wloczko1.80—
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