TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125595
Played Sep 14Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115911711118611
Karol Strowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Karol Strowski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Kacper Petas at 58.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 10–7 Karol Strowski Karol Strowski has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Petas beat Strowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Petas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Petas
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1890 vs Strowski 1777
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 80% vs Strowski 20%
Petas
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 50% vs Strowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +2 · Strowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Petas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 1.61 / Strowski 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Petas)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125595
Petas1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 176 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it95% 98 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it75% 137 of 182
Strowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas5wins
AwayStrowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas50%2 of 4
AwayStrowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas4Strowski6n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S2Petas7Strowski3n = 10Petas took 7 of 10
S3Petas7Strowski3n = 10Petas took 7 of 10
S4Petas2Strowski5n = 7Strowski took 5 of 7
S5Petas1Strowski2n = 3Strowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasStrowskiP − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.637.2+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasStrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime708 / 1334 vs 812 / 139353.1%58.3%708 / 1334 vs 812 / 1393Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetasPetas 1.61/Strowski 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Petas · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 20 · 12:05K. Petas30117931K. Strowski4291111113
WJun 20 · 09:40K. Petas531111119113K. Strowski4613861182
WApr 23 · 14:50K. Petas4771613113K. Strowski4411141181
LMar 25 · 10:30K. Petas31118661K. Strowski4071111113
LMar 3 · 19:35K. Petas50811126132K. Strowski481121011143
WFeb 24 · 12:55K. Petas331111113K. Strowski228860
WDec 28 · 11:25K. Petas331111113K. Strowski205870
LSep 22 · 12:25K. Petas4581111872K. Strowski44117411113
LAug 12 · 14:45K. Petas226970K. Strowski331111113
WJul 7 · 14:45K. Petas4291111113K. Strowski33117871
K. Petas10
WSep 14 · 11:15K. Petas1.5311116123K. Wloczko2.384711101WSep 14 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.9141111662K. Petas1.80119811113LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113WSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552WSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:00K. Petas1.7391191172K. Wloczko2.00119119113LSep 13 · 14:10J. Zandecki1.61111189113K. Petas2.2058111152WSep 13 · 13:20S. Dosz1.9181151182K. Petas1.80119119113
K. Strowski10
LSep 14 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.6191214113K. Strowski2.2011101291LSep 14 · 10:50K. Strowski2.20441151T. Spanik1.6111113113WSep 14 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75761111113M. Jadczyk1.4011117962LSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552LSep 14 · 07:20K. Strowski1.915830K. Wloczko1.801111113WSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113LSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182WSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113WSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552LSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113
Upcoming Matches
K. Petas
K. Strowski
Sep 14 · 14:10K. Strowski1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Sep 15 · 03:25K. Strowski2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 04:55K. Strowski2.00J. Braun1.73—Sep 15 · 06:05K. Strowski3.00M. Olejnik1.36—Sep 15 · 07:20K. Strowski2.20M. Miastowski1.61—Sep 15 · 08:30K. Strowski2.38A. Wiecek1.53—Sep 15 · 09:40K. Strowski2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Sep 15 · 10:50K. Strowski2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 11:40K. Strowski3.00M. Olejnik1.36—Sep 15 · 12:30K. Strowski2.38A. Wiecek1.53—
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