TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125301
Played Sep 14Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711611117119116
Marcin Jadczyk
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:02 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 67.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 8–14 Marcin Jadczyk Karol Strowski has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Strowski beat Jadczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:02What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Jadczyk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1785 vs Jadczyk 1854
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 40% vs Jadczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 50% vs Jadczyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -2 · Jadczyk -3
Jadczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Jadczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 2.75 / Jadczyk 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Jadczyk)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125301
Strowski2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back28% 31 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Jadczyk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 402 of 631
Up 2–0, closes it98% 199 of 203
Up 1–0, closes it83% 314 of 378
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski4wins
AwayJadczyk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayJadczyk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski6Jadczyk4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S2Strowski3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S3Strowski3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Strowski3Jadczyk5n = 8Jadczyk took 5 of 8
S5Strowski2Jadczyk1n = 3Strowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiJadczykS − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.140.2−7.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime811 / 1390 vs 983 / 167958.4%58.6%811 / 1390 vs 983 / 1679Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykStrowski 2.75/Jadczyk 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 06:05K. Strowski4111811113M. Jadczyk37811991
WSep 11 · 14:10K. Strowski3511112113M. Jadczyk34961181
LAug 31 · 12:05K. Strowski178540M. Jadczyk331111113
LAug 10 · 12:05K. Strowski176740M. Jadczyk331111113
LJul 30 · 12:05K. Strowski28741251M. Jadczyk43111110113
WJul 24 · 13:20K. Strowski47111159113M. Jadczyk4497111162
WJul 13 · 12:55K. Strowski48114139113M. Jadczyk51911111192
LJul 6 · 10:25K. Strowski27114481M. Jadczyk3741111113
LJun 30 · 12:05K. Strowski4161171162M. Jadczyk48117118113
LJun 29 · 12:55K. Strowski30118561M. Jadczyk4291111113
K. Strowski10
LSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552LSep 14 · 07:20K. Strowski1.915830K. Wloczko1.801111113WSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113LSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182WSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113WSep 11 · 21:00K. Strowski1.33116811113J. Mitas3.2571111552LSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113LSep 11 · 18:30K. Strowski1.8311591132M. Nowalinski1.83611119113WSep 11 · 17:20P. Jendrzejewski2.50881141K. Strowski1.5011115113WSep 11 · 16:30K. Strowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008780
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.40811991K. Strowski2.7511811113WSep 14 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.38121351182M. Jadczyk1.531411117113WSep 13 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.75711771M. Jadczyk1.4011511113LSep 13 · 12:55A. Dosz1.73118117113M. Jadczyk2.0071191182WSep 13 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.8311119113S. Dosz1.83871161LSep 13 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.67111011872K. Petas2.10812911113WSep 13 · 09:40J. Zandecki1.9111781192M. Jadczyk1.80511117113WSep 11 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz1.9111881272M. Jadczyk1.807111110113
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