TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125516
Played Sep 14Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411119118611611
Kacper Petas
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Kacper Petas at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 56–69 Kacper Petas Adrian Wiecek has won 56 of their 125 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:54What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Petas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-69 in 125
Petas
Correct
gap of 13 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1916 vs Petas 1877
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 80% vs Petas 40%
Wiecek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 70% vs Petas 50%
Wiecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Petas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Petas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.91 / Petas 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Petas)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13125516
Wiecek1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 79 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Petas1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 176 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it95% 98 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it75% 137 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek6wins
AwayPetas4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek85.7%6 of 7
AwayPetas100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek7Petas3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S2Wiecek5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek7Petas3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S4Wiecek3Petas3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekPetasW − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.234.4+3.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime769 / 1398 vs 708 / 133455%53.1%769 / 1398 vs 708 / 1334Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetasWiecek 1.91/Petas 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Petas · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 3 · 14:00A. Wiecek50119111182K. Petas47611613113
WJun 3 · 08:45A. Wiecek4912914143K. Petas45101112121
WJun 2 · 11:10A. Wiecek4213711113K. Petas361111861
WJun 2 · 08:00A. Wiecek331111113K. Petas238780
LJun 1 · 12:00A. Wiecek409129101K. Petas44111011123
LJun 1 · 09:10A. Wiecek2651290K. Petas361114113
WMay 27 · 10:25A. Wiecek331111113K. Petas248790
WMay 19 · 10:25A. Wiecek3811511113K. Petas34911681
WMay 19 · 05:05A. Wiecek331111113K. Petas187470
LMay 18 · 10:00A. Wiecek389118101K. Petas3711311123
A. Wiecek10
WSep 14 · 09:00A. Wiecek1.44129811113K. Wloczko2.63101111962LSep 14 · 08:05A. Wiecek1.44710100K. Wloczko2.631112123WSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113WSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182LSep 14 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.38121351182M. Jadczyk1.531411117113WSep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.0011134113M. Jadczyk1.739111171WSep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.4461111113K. Kolodziej2.63116771LSep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.739117121G. Felkel2.0011711143WSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.10411411112A. Wiecek1.67114119133
K. Petas10
LSep 14 · 09:20K. Petas1.8341121162T. Spanik1.83118119113WSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552WSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:00K. Petas1.7391191172K. Wloczko2.00119119113LSep 13 · 14:10J. Zandecki1.61111189113K. Petas2.2058111152WSep 13 · 13:20S. Dosz1.9181151182K. Petas1.80119119113WSep 13 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7510840K. Petas1.251211113WSep 13 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.67111011872K. Petas2.10812911113
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