TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125570
Played Sep 14Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118211119611
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 4–13 Tibor Spanik Kacper Petas has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-13 in 17
Spanik
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1877 vs Spanik 1905
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 40% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 60% vs Spanik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas +2 · Spanik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 1.83 / Spanik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125570
Petas1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Spanik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas4wins
AwaySpanik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas66.7%4 of 6
AwaySpanik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas6Spanik4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S2Petas7Spanik3n = 10Petas took 7 of 10
S3Petas6Spanik4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S4Petas2Spanik5n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S5Petas0Spanik3n = 3Spanik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasSpanikP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.636.9+0.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime708 / 1334 vs 240 / 43053.1%55.8%708 / 1334 vs 240 / 430Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikPetas 1.83/Spanik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 21 · 12:05K. Petas4211911113T. Spanik31711761
LJun 21 · 09:40K. Petas4011711652T. Spanik49711911113
LJun 21 · 07:20K. Petas4411491192T. Spanik49911117113
WJun 21 · 04:55K. Petas331111113T. Spanik186750
LJun 20 · 11:15K. Petas4110111191T. Spanik4412813113
LJun 20 · 09:00K. Petas4491111852T. Spanik47118611113
WJun 20 · 07:20K. Petas341211113T. Spanik2710890
WJun 20 · 04:55K. Petas331111113T. Spanik228590
LJun 19 · 14:35K. Petas31811571T. Spanik4111811113
LJun 19 · 06:30K. Petas34611891T. Spanik4111811113
K. Petas10
WSep 14 · 08:30K. Petas1.61911711113K. Strowski2.2011411552WSep 14 · 06:55K. Petas2.2011613113M. Jadczyk1.615111181LSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113LSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:00K. Petas1.7391191172K. Wloczko2.00119119113LSep 13 · 14:10J. Zandecki1.61111189113K. Petas2.2058111152WSep 13 · 13:20S. Dosz1.9181151182K. Petas1.80119119113WSep 13 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7510840K. Petas1.251211113WSep 13 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.67111011872K. Petas2.10812911113WSep 13 · 09:00A. Dosz1.73118561K. Petas2.0091111113
T. Spanik10
WSep 14 · 07:45T. Spanik1.73118116113M. Jadczyk2.0091171172LSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:15T. Spanik1.6791111113K. Wloczko2.10114821WSep 14 · 04:10K. Petas2.0091080T. Spanik1.731112113LSep 14 · 03:25T. Spanik1.6191181182K. Strowski2.20115115113WSep 10 · 16:06T. Spanik1.301111102J. Skalda3.4055100LSep 9 · 13:50T. Spanik1.3712121181J. Kuzmicz2.70101413113LSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.70115281J. Braun2.0081111113WSep 9 · 11:20T. Spanik1.2491111113K. Wisniewski3.45116891WSep 9 · 10:05A. Daniel2.608870T. Spanik1.441111113
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