TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120615
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Zandecki
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115118811911115
Kacper Petas
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJan Zandecki to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Zandecki above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jan Zandecki at 59.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zandecki 39–30 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 30 of their 69 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Petas beat Zandecki 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zandecki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-30 in 69
Zandecki
Correct
gap of 9 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zandecki 1875 vs Petas 1963
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zandecki 60% vs Petas 80%
Petas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zandecki 60% vs Petas 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zandecki -1 · Petas +4
Petas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Zandecki) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZandecki 1.61 / Petas 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Zandecki)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13120615
Zandecki1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 106 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it79% 75 of 95
Petas2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 259
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZandecki5wins
AwayPetas5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZandecki60%3 of 5
AwayPetas60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zandecki5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S2Zandecki5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S3Zandecki6Petas4n = 10Zandecki took 6 of 10
S4Zandecki3Petas4n = 7Petas took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZandeckiPetasZ − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.837.7+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZandeckiPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime463 / 835 vs 708 / 133355.5%53.1%463 / 835 vs 708 / 1333Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZandeckiZandecki 1.61/Petas 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Zandecki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zandecki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 07:20J. Zandecki49911111352K. Petas49117515113
LAug 25 · 13:20J. Zandecki3081570K. Petas391117113
WAug 25 · 05:15J. Zandecki4011711113K. Petas27711271
LAug 20 · 10:00J. Zandecki366911101K. Petas3911115123
WAug 20 · 05:40J. Zandecki351111133K. Petas2586110
WAug 15 · 05:15J. Zandecki45121111113K. Petas34145691
LJul 30 · 03:00J. Zandecki33118591K. Petas4071111113
WJul 26 · 12:30J. Zandecki578111611113K. Petas5511818992
WJul 26 · 08:30J. Zandecki331111113K. Petas227960
LJun 29 · 09:20J. Zandecki401361291K. Petas47111114113
J. Zandecki10
LSep 13 · 12:30G. Adamiak2.6361111113J. Zandecki1.44114961WSep 13 · 11:40A. Dosz1.80111281092J. Zandecki1.917101112113WSep 13 · 10:50J. Zandecki1.80119117113S. Dosz1.9161171182LSep 13 · 09:40J. Zandecki1.9111781192M. Jadczyk1.80511117113WSep 13 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.50661121J. Zandecki1.5011119113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.57911111352K. Petas2.25117515113WSep 13 · 06:05S. Dosz1.919101381J. Zandecki1.80111211113LSep 13 · 04:55A. Dosz1.6181111113J. Zandecki2.20115861WSep 13 · 03:25A. Witkowski1.576121151J. Zandecki2.2511149113WSep 7 · 03:00S. Kolasa1.830J. Zandecki1.830
K. Petas10
WSep 13 · 13:20S. Dosz1.9181151182K. Petas1.80119119113WSep 13 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.7510840K. Petas1.251211113WSep 13 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.67111011872K. Petas2.10812911113WSep 13 · 09:00A. Dosz1.73118561K. Petas2.0091111113LSep 13 · 08:05A. Dosz1.7311811113K. Petas2.00911941WSep 13 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.57911111352K. Petas2.25117515113LSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:30S. Dosz2.008660K. Petas1.731111113WSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820
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