TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129034
Played Sep 15Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81113111012911––
Maksymilian Miastowski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 57.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 52–26 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 26 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:34What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wiecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-26 in 78
Wiecek
Wrong
gap of 26 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1872 vs Miastowski 1812
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Miastowski 80%
Miastowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Miastowski 70%
Miastowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -2 · Miastowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Wiecek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.67 / Miastowski 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Wiecek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13129034
Wiecek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 179 of 274
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it81% 133 of 164
Miastowski2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 83 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek8wins
AwayMiastowski2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek85.7%6 of 7
AwayMiastowski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek7Miastowski3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S2Wiecek7Miastowski3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S3Wiecek3Miastowski7n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S4Wiecek7Miastowski3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S5Wiecek3Miastowski1n = 4Wiecek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekMiastowskiW − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.541.2+3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime770 / 1402 vs 581 / 111954.9%51.9%770 / 1402 vs 581 / 1119Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.67/Miastowski 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 10 · 12:25A. Wiecek54111189153M. Miastowski52981111132
WJun 9 · 15:35A. Wiecek4212811113M. Miastowski361011691
WJun 9 · 07:40A. Wiecek4211119113M. Miastowski36971191
LJun 8 · 11:10A. Wiecek47851211112M. Miastowski521111107133
WJun 8 · 06:40A. Wiecek4011117113M. Miastowski32981141
LMay 25 · 12:50A. Wiecek4511119141M. Miastowski4991311163
WMay 25 · 09:10A. Wiecek48711711123M. Miastowski44113119102
WMay 11 · 16:20A. Wiecek4011117113M. Miastowski29971121
WApr 13 · 13:15A. Wiecek46811115113M. Miastowski4511781182
WApr 13 · 07:40A. Wiecek4111118113M. Miastowski37891191
A. Wiecek10
LSep 14 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.20118712122T. Spanik1.619111110143LSep 14 · 12:55A. Wiecek2.3838130M. Jadczyk1.531111153WSep 14 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.6191214113K. Strowski2.2011101291LSep 14 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.9141111662K. Petas1.80119811113WSep 14 · 09:00A. Wiecek1.44129811113K. Wloczko2.63101111962LSep 14 · 08:05A. Wiecek1.44710100K. Wloczko2.631112123WSep 14 · 06:30T. Spanik1.806111091A. Wiecek1.9111512113WSep 14 · 05:40K. Petas1.911011791A. Wiecek1.8012611113WSep 14 · 04:55A. Wiecek1.53911116113K. Strowski2.3811691182LSep 14 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.38121351182M. Jadczyk1.531411117113
M. Miastowski10
LSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173WSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113WSep 11 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.50121567102M. Miastowski1.4510131111123WSep 11 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.381313113K. Wisniewski2.65111190WSep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.3791112113M. Kolek2.701191081WSep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.381191111123M. Olejnik1.53911813102LSep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0010111181M. Jadczyk1.7312135113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Miastowski1.8351131182K. Wloczko1.83116117113WSep 11 · 04:10M. Miastowski1.441112113G. Poliniewicz2.6361050WSep 11 · 03:00M. Miastowski1.61811117153J. Kuzmicz2.20119911132
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
Sep 15 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.67J. Braun2.10—Sep 15 · 06:55A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 15 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.57K. Strowski2.25—Sep 15 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 15 · 10:00A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.67J. Braun2.10—Sep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.57K. Strowski2.25—Sep 15 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.20M. Jadczyk1.61—
M. Miastowski
Sep 15 · 04:30M. Miastowski2.50M. Olejnik1.50—Sep 15 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.25T. Spanik1.57—Sep 15 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.61K. Strowski2.20—Sep 15 · 08:05M. Miastowski1.83J. Braun1.83—Sep 15 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.59L. Jarocki2.11—Sep 15 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.51M. Rutkowski2.28—Sep 15 · 11:45M. Miastowski1.45M. Malachowski2.43—Sep 15 · 12:35M. Miastowski1.66M. Sklensky2.00—Sep 15 · 14:15M. Miastowski—K. Glazowski——
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