TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Michal Murawski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111161012118511
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Murawski to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Murawski above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 93 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Michal Murawski at 59.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Michal Murawski 2–0 Jakub Kuzmicz Jakub Kuzmicz has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Murawski beat Kuzmicz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Murawski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Murawski 1887 vs Kuzmicz 1928
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Murawski 80% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Murawski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Murawski 70% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Murawski +3 · Kuzmicz -1
Murawski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Murawski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Murawski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMurawski 1.73 / Kuzmicz 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Murawski)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13165443
Murawski1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Kuzmicz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 122 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back33% 36 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMurawski2wins
AwayKuzmicz0wins
Murawski leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMurawskiKuzmiczM − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match36.528.5+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMurawskiKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 769 vs 696 / 120359.4%57.9%457 / 769 vs 696 / 1203Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MurawskiMurawski 1.73/Kuzmicz 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Murawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski4061111123J. Kuzmicz351177101
WMar 10 · 06:20M. Murawski331111113J. Kuzmicz227690
M. Murawski10
LSep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski1.91911591A. Wiecek1.8011911113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 06:30D. Michna2.1011961172M. Murawski1.67811117113WSep 21 · 05:40G. Felkel1.61911681M. Murawski2.2011411113LSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113WSep 21 · 03:45M. Murawski2.001181111113M. Jadczyk1.7391113472WMar 11 · 16:35M. Olejnik1.838770M. Murawski1.831111113LMar 11 · 15:30M. Murawski2.101188101J. Kosowski1.6771111123LMar 11 · 14:15M. Jadczyk1.5311129123M. Murawski2.3861011101WMar 11 · 13:00A. Grela2.252990M. Murawski1.571111113
J. Kuzmicz10
LSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.67911111152J. Kuzmicz2.10118135113LSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 03:00G. Felkel1.5368111192J. Kuzmicz2.38111159113WSep 18 · 15:45J. Kuzmicz1.2612811113J. Stecyszyn2.951011781LSep 18 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz2.20119101142J. Kosowski1.61711129113WSep 18 · 12:55J. Kuzmicz3.00111656113D. Wederlich1.36714111162WSep 18 · 11:15J. Kuzmicz2.757111115113A. Grela1.4011771792LSep 18 · 10:00J. Kuzmicz2.6381231182J. Zandecki1.441110117113WSep 18 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz2.751311133D. Wederlich1.40117110
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